Price Determinants in the German Intraday Market for Electricity: An Empirical Analysis
AbstractThis paper presents a first investigation of hourly price determinants in the German intraday market for electricity. The influence of power plant outages, forecast errors of wind and solar power production, load forecast errors and foreign demand and supply on intraday prices are explained from a theoretical perspective. Furthermore the influences of the non-linear merit-order shape, ramping costs and strategic market behavior are discussed. The empirical results from different regression analysis with data from 2010 and 2011 show that most price determinants increase and decrease intraday prices as expected. Nevertheless, only a minor share of power plant outages and solar power forecast errors are traded on the electronic intraday trading platform, thus influencing prices not as strongly as expected. Furthermore the price determinants influence intraday prices differently over the course of the day which may be explained by an alternating liquidity provision.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics in its series EWL Working Papers with number 1318.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision: Oct 2013
Intraday market for electricity; price modeling; price determinants;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2013-11-16 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-MST-2013-11-16 (Market Microstructure)
- NEP-REG-2013-11-16 (Regulation)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2008.
"Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 744-763.
- Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2008. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models," MPRA Paper 10428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2008. "Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3186-3197, November.
- Traber, Thure & Kemfert, Claudia, 2011.
"Gone with the wind? -- Electricity market prices and incentives to invest in thermal power plants under increasing wind energy supply,"
Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 249-256, March.
- Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2009. "Gone with the Wind?: Electricity Market Prices and Incentives to Invest in Thermal Power Plants under Increasing Wind Energy Supply," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 852, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Troy, Niamh & Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2010. "Base-load cycling on a system with significant wind penetration," MPRA Paper 34848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003.
"Regime jumps in electricity prices,"
Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September.
- Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3131736, Tilburg University.
- Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2001. "Regime Jumps in Electricity Prices," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-48-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Nicolosi, Marco, 2010. "Wind power integration and power system flexibility-An empirical analysis of extreme events in Germany under the new negative price regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7257-7268, November.
- Keles, Dogan & Genoese, Massimo & Möst, Dominik & Fichtner, Wolf, 2012. "Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1012-1032.
- Janina Ketterer, 2012. "The Impact of Wind Power Generation on the Electricity Price in Germany," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 143, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Christoph Weber & Oliver Woll, 2007. "Merit-Order-Effekte Von Erneuerbaren Energien - Zu Schoen Um Wahr Zu Sein?," EWL Working Papers 0701, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Sep 2007.
- repec:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:18:p:2683-2693 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bobinaite, Viktorija & Juozapaviciene, Aldona & Staniewski, Marcin & Szczepankowski, Piotr, 2013. "Comparative analysis of features of Polish and Lithuanian Day-ahead electricity market prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 181-196.
- Paul Lehmann & Felix Creutzig & Melf-Hinrich Ehlers & Nele Friedrichsen & Clemens Heuson & Lion Hirth & Robert Pietzcker, 2012. "Carbon Lock-Out: Advancing Renewable Energy Policy in Europe," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 323-354, February.
- Weber, Christoph, 2010. "Adequate intraday market design to enable the integration of wind energy into the European power systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3155-3163, July.
- Kristiansen, Tarjei, 2012. "Forecasting Nord Pool day-ahead prices with an autoregressive model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 328-332.
- Zachmann, Georg, 2008. "Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1659-1671, July.
- Weigt, Hannes & Hirschhausen, Christian von, 2008. "Price formation and market power in the German wholesale electricity market in 2006," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4227-4234, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andreas Fritz).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.