Individual Decisions And System Development - Integrating Modelling Approaches For The Heating Market
AbstractImprovements in the building stock insulation and the replacement of heating systems will have to take place within the next decades in order to lower heat demand and the associated carbon emissions of the building sector. Moreover, continuous investments in heating systems are nec-essary due to replacement activities. Besides conventional heating technologies like gas- or oil-fired heating systems and combined heat and power (CHP) plants in district heating, increasing-ly renewable systems like heat pumps and pellet stoves will have to be installed to cover heat demand. The current study presents an integrated, iterative modelling approach to determine the development of the heating market. A system model captures the fundamental influencing factors on the investment decision while a logistic decision model describes in detail the build-ing ownersâ€™ behaviour, taking into account the heterogeneous building stock and possible non-economic factors influencing heating system choice. In the application case, the potentials for different heating technologies are investigated under three different economic scenarios for the German heating market until 2050.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics in its series EWL Working Papers with number 1301.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision: Feb 2013
Heating; Residential Energy Demand; Discrete Choice; Peak Load Pricing;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
- Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-DCM-2013-03-30 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-ENE-2013-03-30 (Energy Economics)
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