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The European used-car market at a glance: Hedonic resale price valuation in automotive leasing industry

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Author Info
Sylvain Prado

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Abstract

In the leasing industry, the risk of loss on sales at the end of the contract term, as well as pricing are critically impacted by the forecasted resale price of the asset (residual value). We apply the Hedonic methodology to European auto lease portfolios, in order to estimate the resale price distribution. The Hedonic approach estimates the price of a good through the valuation of its attributes. Following a discussion on Hedonic prices, we propose an operational model for the automobile resale market. The model is applied to four European countries (France, Germany, Spain and Great Britain), and distributions are calculated on two vehicle versions (Audi A4 & Ford Focus) allowing a comparison of market depreciation patterns and residual value risks.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX in its series EconomiX Working Papers with number 2009-22.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2009-22

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Related research
Keywords: Hedonic model; residual value; automotive market;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure

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  1. Bartik, Timothy J, 1987. "The Estimation of Demand Parameters in Hedonic Price Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 81-88, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Couton, C & Gardes, F & Thepaut, Y, 1996. "Hedonic Prices for Environmental and Safety Characteristics and the Akerloff Effect in the French Car Market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(7), pages 435-40, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James N. Brown & Harvey S. Rosen, 1982. "On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ivar Ekeland & James J. Heckman & Lars Nesheim, 2004. "Identification and Estimation of Hedonic Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages S60-S109, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Cubbin, John S, 1975. "Quality Change and Pricing Behaviour in the United Kingdom Car Industry 1956-1968," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(165), pages 43-58, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Akerlof, George A, 1970. "The Market for 'Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Makoto Ohta & Zvi Griliches, 1976. "Automobile Prices Revisited: Extensions of the Hedonic Hypothesis," NBER Chapters, in: Household Production and Consumption, pages 325-398 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  10. Yerger, David B, 1996. "Used Car Markets: Reliability Does Matter, but Do Consumer Reports?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 67-70, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hartman, Raymond S, 1987. "Product Quality and Market Efficiency: The Effect of Product Recalls on Resale Prices and Firm Valuation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 367-72, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cowling, Keith & Cubbin, John, 1972. "Hedonic Price Indexes for United Kingdom Cars," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(327), pages 963-78, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pratt, Michael D & Hoffer, George E, 1990. "The Efficiency of Used Vehicle Markets: The Case of Technological Obsolescence and Differential Repair Records," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 22(9), pages 1205-13, September.
  14. Atkinson, Scott E & Halvorsen, Robert, 1990. "The Valuation of Risks to Life: Evidence from the Market for Automobiles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 133-36, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Triplett, Jack E, 1969. "Automobiles and Hedonic Quality Measurement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 408-17, May/June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-23.


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