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The sensitivity of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters: A simulation study

Author

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  • Rebecca Graziani
  • Nico Keilman

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of stochastic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters. In particular, we evaluate the impact that a change in the specification of the correlation of the age-specific fertility forecast error increments across time and age and of the correlation of the age-specific mortality forecast error increments across time, age and sex has on the forecasts of the Total Fertility Rate and of the Male and Female Life Expectancies respectively. In our opinion a sensitivity analysis of this kind is extremely useful, since up to now the relevance and the impact of the choice of the Scaled Model of Error input parameters has not be discussed in detail. Such analysis will provide users with a better understanding of the model itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca Graziani & Nico Keilman, 2011. "The sensitivity of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters: A simulation study," Working Papers 037, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    • Handle: RePEc:don:donwpa:037
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    File URL: ftp://ftp.dondena.unibocconi.it/WorkingPapers/Dondena_WP037.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Gianni Corsetti & Marco Marsili, 2013. "Previsioni stocastiche della popolazione nell’ottica di un Istituto Nazionale di Statistica," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(2-3), pages 5-29.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population forecasts; Scaled Model of Error; sensitivity analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • J40 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - General

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