Trade-volume hysteresis: an investigation using aggregate data
AbstractSunk costs of entry create a wedge between the real exchange rate for which a foreign exporter enters the domestic market, and that for which he exits. On the macroeconomic level, heterogeneous cost structures make the number of entry and exit thresholds approach a continuum: any movement of the real exchange rate beyond its historical peak triggers some entry or exit. A sufficiently large appreciation followed by an equivalent depreciation (a `cycle') could hysteretically affect the trade volume, because some exporters enter and stay. This paper investigates whether trade-volume hysteresis indeed occurs during such cycles, by testing for structural breaks in the constant term and the real exchange rate elasticity of the import volume in a standard import-volume specification. Binomial tests indicate that constant-term breaks have the sign predicted by hysteresis theory significantly more than 50% of the time. Breaks in the real exchange rate elasticity, on the other hand, have the `reverse' sign in significantly more than half of the cases.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 740.
Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2003
Date of revision:
Hysteresis; Trade volumes; Real exchange rate cycles; Recursive coefficient estimations;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
- F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laura Piscitelli, .
"A Test for Strong Hysteresis,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1997
2, Society for Computational Economics.
- Baldwin, R.E. & Lyons, R.K., 1991.
"Exchange Rate Hysteresis : Large Versus Small Policy Misalignments,"
fb-28, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Baldwin, Richard E. & Lyons, Richard K., 1994. "Exchange rate hysteresis? Large versus small policy misalignments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, January.
- Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004.
"Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
- Campa, José Manuel, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Trade: How Important is Hysteresis in Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2606, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Campa, Jose M., 2000. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," IESE Research Papers D/427, IESE Business School.
- Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987.
"Fiscal increasing returns, hysteresis, real wages and unemployment,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 543-560, April.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1989. "Fiscal Increasing Returns, Hysteresis, Real Wages and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 2034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Fiscal Increasing Returns, Hysteresis, Real Wages and Unemployment," Working papers 429, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Baldwin, Richard, 1988.
"Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-85, September.
- Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
- Ljungqvist, Lars, 1994. "Hysteresis in international trade: a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-399, August.
- Kim, Yoonbai, 1991. "External Adjustments and Exchange Rate Flexibility: Some Evidence from U.S. Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 176-81, February.
- Robert A. Blecker, 1992. "Structural Roots of U.S. Trade Problems: Income Elasticities, Secular Trends, and Hysteresis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 14(3), pages 321-346, April.
- Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Some Empirical Evidence on Hysteresis in Aggregate US Import Prices," NBER Working Papers 2483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susan A. Hickok & Juann H. Hung & Kurt C. Wulfekuhler, 1991. "An expanded, cointegrated model of U.S. trade," Research Paper 9121, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
- Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 606-13, November.
- Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986.
"Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baldwin, Richard & Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-54, November.
- Dionysios Chionis, 2002. "The Hysteretic Effects on the Real Exchange Rates," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 451-463.
- Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias & Guenther, Martin, 2009.
"When does it hurt? The exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exports,"
45, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2009. "When Does It Hurt?: The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 943, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Goecke & Martin Guenther, 2009. "When Does It Hurt? The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports," Ruhr Economic Papers 0148, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2012.
"Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports: Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
1203, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, 02.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Guenther, 2012. "Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports – Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations," Ruhr Economic Papers 0327, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.