Is Eastern Europe ready for the Euro? A Cointegration Analysis for the Maastricht Criteria
AbstractThis report documents the results of cointegration analyses of the degree of convergence which the economies of the central-eastern european countries (CEECs) have achieved towards the economies of the EMU countries. This cointegration technique is applied to several of the core variables that are important with respect to the Maastricht criteria, namely: inflation, the exchange rate, and the long-term interest rate. The main conclusion that can be drawn from this cointegration analysis is that most of the countries in the first group entering the EU have achieved a considerable degree of convergence for most (but not all) of these EMU criteria variables considered. The countries in the second group of countries to enter the EU in the more distant future, turn out to be lagging behind in the convergence process.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 699.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Cointegration; Convergence; EMU;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-06-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2003-06-16 (European Economics)
- NEP-IFN-2003-07-21 (International Finance)
- NEP-TRA-2003-06-16 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994.
"Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag,"
Cahiers de recherche
9423, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Lusinyan, Lusine & Buch, Claudia M., 2002. "Short-Term Capital, Economic Transformation, and EU Accession," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- James G. MacKinnon, 2010.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests,"
1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Haug, Alfred A. & MacKinnon, James G. & Michelis, Leo, 2000. "European Monetary Union: a cointegration analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-432, June.
- Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990.
"Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-94, August.
- Karfakis, C. J. & Moschos, D.M., 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages Within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 144, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Haug, Alfred A, 2001. "Co-movement towards a Currency or Monetary Union? An Empirical Study for New Zealand," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 307-17, September.
- Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
- Halpern, László & Neményi, Judit, 2002. "Fiscal Foundation of Convergence to European Union in Pre-Accession Transition Countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Wagner, Helmut, 2002. "Pitfalls in the European Enlargement Process: Financial Instability and Real Divergence," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.