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International Business Cycle Indicators, Measurement and Forecasting

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  • A.H.J. den Reijer

Abstract

In this paper the business cycles of nine OECD-countries are identified by applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald bandpass filter. Turning points, recession and expansion phases and other descriptive statistics are derived from these business cylce indicators. Moreover, the international linkage between two economies is investigated by measuring the degree of synchronism of the two corresponding cyclical motions. In addition to measuring the cyclical fluctuation, a composite leading indicator is constructed which replicates and predicts the business cycle. This leading indicator is a single index composed of economic, financial and expectation variables possessing leading properties. The real-time performance of the constructed business cycle indicator for the Netherlands is compared to the performance of a similar indicator based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter methodology.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 689.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:689

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Keywords: business cylces; turning points; leading indicators; bandpass filter; Forecasting;

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  1. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  3. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  4. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
  6. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  7. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
  8. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Henk C. Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan P. Verbruggen, 2004. "A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy – Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System," CESifo Working Paper Series 1200, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Henk Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan Verbruggen, 2004. "A leading indicator for the Dutch economy; methodological and empirical revision of the CPB system," CPB Discussion Paper 32, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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