Central Bank Independence: Low Inflation at no Cost? A Numeral Simulations Exercise
AbstractThe independent nature of the Central Bank is often associated with achieving low and stable inflation. Further to that the merits of independence are stretched to achieving low(er) output variability when compared to a government run monetary policy. In this paper we use the Alesina and Alesina and Gatti model to examine how often an Independent Central Bank can achieve an improvement on both counts. To do that we run numerical simulations where we change the ex ante probability of elections (and hence the degree of electoral uncertainty) with a view to determining how the private sector's perceptions affect the level of output variability. Our conclusions agree with the Alesina and Gatti assertion that there will exist occasions that both political parties will consent to the running of monetary policy by an independent institution but that is the least often occurred outcome. On theoretical grounds therefore, the trade-off between inflation and output variability (à la Rogoff) is still a valid one.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 656.
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Central Bank Independence; Output stability; Political uncertainty;
Other versions of this item:
- Demertzis, Maria, 2004. "Central Bank independence: Low inflation at no cost? A numerical simulations exercise," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 661-677, December.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alesina, Alberto & Gatti, Roberta, 1995. "Independent Central Banks: Low Inflation at No Cost?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 196-200, May.
- Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 1999.
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CEPR Discussion Papers
2219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Viegi, Nicola, 2004. "An independent central bank faced with elected governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 907-922, November.
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96/20, New South Wales - School of Economics.
- Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Viegi, Nicola, 2004.
"An independent central bank faced with elected governments,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 907-922, November.
- Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 1999. "An Independent Central Bank Faced With Elected Governments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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