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Corporate Credit, Stock Price Inflation and Economic Fluctuations

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  • J.J.J. Groen

Abstract

We analyze in this paper the empirical interaction between real corporate credit, real income, real stock prices, the short-term interest rate and inflation for the Netherlands and the United States. The framework is based on a five-variable vector error correction model with economically based restrictions upon the cointegrating vectors. Structure is imposed on the vector error correction model in order to identify the permanent and temporary shocks within the system and we use impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions to analyze the interdependencies between the aforementioned variables. Erratic shocks in the real amount of corporate credit and in stock prices could potentially have some impact on inflation in the case of United States and on real output in the Netherlands. However, our structural VAR analysis also shows that the above mentioned erratic shocks only explain a small proportion of the variation in inflation and economic activity, and inflation objective shifts and supply side shocks are much more important determinants for economic fluctuations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 651.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:651

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Keywords: Corporate credit; stock prices; vector error correction models; impulse response functions.;

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  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  2. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Gertler, Mark, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 559-88, August.
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  7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  8. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
  9. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 countries," BIS Working Papers 26, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
  11. P.J.G. Vlaar & H. Schuberth, 1999. "Monetary Transmission and Controllability of Money in Europe: aStructural Vector Error Correction Approach," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 36, Netherlands Central Bank.
  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  13. Vlaar, Peter J.G., 2004. "On The Asymptotic Distribution Of Impulse Response Functions With Long-Run Restrictions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 891-903, October.
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  16. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
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Cited by:
  1. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Munich Reprints in Economics 19367, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  2. Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.

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