Corporate Credit, Stock Price Inflation and Economic Fluctuations
AbstractWe analyze in this paper the empirical interaction between real corporate credit, real income, real stock prices, the short-term interest rate and inflation for the Netherlands and the United States. The framework is based on a five-variable vector error correction model with economically based restrictions upon the cointegrating vectors. Structure is imposed on the vector error correction model in order to identify the permanent and temporary shocks within the system and we use impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions to analyze the interdependencies between the aforementioned variables. Erratic shocks in the real amount of corporate credit and in stock prices could potentially have some impact on inflation in the case of United States and on real output in the Netherlands. However, our structural VAR analysis also shows that the above mentioned erratic shocks only explain a small proportion of the variation in inflation and economic activity, and inflation objective shifts and supply side shocks are much more important determinants for economic fluctuations.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 651.
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Corporate credit; stock prices; vector error correction models; impulse response functions.;
Other versions of this item:
- Jan Groen, 2004. "Corporate credit, stock price inflation and economic fluctuations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 1995-2006.
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- P.J.G. Vlaar & H. Schuberth, 1998.
"Monetary transmission and controllability of money in Europe: a structural vector error correction approach,"
WO Research Memoranda (discontinued)
544, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- P.J.G. Vlaar & H. Schuberth, 1999. "Monetary Transmission and Controllability of Money in Europe: aStructural Vector Error Correction Approach," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 36, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1986.
"Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation,"
NBER Working Papers
1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994.
"The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the flow of funds,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1992.
"Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992.
"Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gali, Jordi, 1992.
"How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Gali's QJE 1992 results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00063, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989.
"The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission,"
89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler, 1988.
"Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
- Gertler, Mark, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 559-88, August.
- Mark L. Gertler, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 2559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992.
"Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model,"
92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995.
"The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 Countries,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 countries," BIS Working Papers 26, Bank for International Settlements.
- P.J.G. Vlaar, 1998.
"On the asymptotic distribution of impulse response functions with long run restrictions,"
WO Research Memoranda (discontinued)
539, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Vlaar, Peter J.G., 2004. "On The Asymptotic Distribution Of Impulse Response Functions With Long-Run Restrictions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 891-903, October.
- Carlo C. A. Winder & Martin M. G. Fase, 1998. "Wealth and the demand for money in the European union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 507-524.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012.
"Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
- Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Loan Supply Shocks during the Financial Crisis: Evidence for the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3395, CESifo Group Munich.
- Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.