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Demographic ageing and sustainability of fiscal policy: projections with a renewed generational accounting model

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Author Info
G.E. Hebbink
Abstract

An updated version of the Nederlandsche Bank's generational accounting model is used to assess fiscal sustainability. The model gives net lifetime taxes for current and future generations. In addition, the same model is applied to make forecasts of budget deficit and debt in percentage of gdp. Without additional policy, both indicators - generational inequality and the deficit/debt measures - point at fiscal unsustainability in the long run. The model is extended with a feedback mechanism between investment and labour productivity growth. With this endogenous effect included, a budget neutral increase of public investments leads to less inequality between generations and eventually to a lower increase in the deficit and debt rates.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 609.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:609

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Related research
Keywords: generational accounting public investment fiscal sustainability budget deficit public debt intertemporal budget

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational accounts: a meaningful alternative to deficit accounting," Working Paper 9103, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  2. G.E. Hebbink, 1997. "Generational accounting with feedback effects on productivity growth: an application to the public sector of the Netherlands," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 506, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Munnell, Alicia H, 1992. "Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 189-98, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Wim P. M. Vijverberg & Chu-Ping C. Vijverberg & Janet L. Gamble, 1997. "Public Capital And Private Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 267-278, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Bernd Raffelhuschen, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the Globe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 161-166, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 94(2), pages 303-18.
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  9. Aschauer, David Alan, 1990. "Is Government Spending Stimulative?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 30-46, October.
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  10. Alicia H. Munnell, 1990. "Why has productivity growth declined? Productivity and public investment," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
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  1. Muriel Bouchet, 2003. "The sustainability of the private sector pension system from a long-term perspective: the case of Luxembourg (Working Paper n°6)," BCL working papers cahier_etude_6, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
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