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Value-at-Risk analysis of stock returns: Historical simulation, varinace techniques or tail index estimation ?

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Author Info
R.W.J. van den Goorbergh
P.J.G. Vlaar

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Abstract

In this paper various Value-at-Risk techniques are applied tot the Dutch stock market index AEX and to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. the main conclusions are: (1) Changing volatility over time is the most important characteristic of stock returns when modelling value-at-risk; (2) For high confidence levels, the fat tails of the distribution can best be modeled by means of the t-distribution, tail index estimators perform much worse; (3) The penalty scheme used to determine the capital requirement is not discriminating enough to give banks proper incentives.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 579.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:579

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Related research
Keywords: Value-at-Risk; AEX; Dow Jones; Capital requirements;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Vlaar, Peter J G & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "The Message in Weekly Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Mean Reversion, Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 351-60, July.
  2. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69. [Downloadable!]
  3. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 334-362.
  4. De Haan, L. & Stadtmuller, U., 1992. "Generalized Regular Variation of Second Order," Papers 9268-a, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute.
  5. Jón Daníelsson & Casper G. de Vries, 1998. "Beyond the Sample: Extreme Quantile and Probability Estimation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-016/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Vlaar, Peter J. G., 2000. "Value at risk models for Dutch bond portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1131-1154, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. GIOT, Pierre, 2000. "Intraday value-at-risk," CORE Discussion Papers 2000045, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  2. Piñeiro, J. & Tamazian, A. & Melikyan, David N., 2006. "Consequences of the Euro introduction on Market Risk: An Econometric Evidence from 1995-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos, 2006. "Liquidity adjusted value-at-risk based on the components of the bid-ask spread," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 835-851, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Juan Piñeiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  5. Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos & Stavros Degiannakis, 2007. "A robust VaR model under different time periods and weighting schemes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 187-201, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. virginie terraza & stephane mussard, 2007. "New trading risk indexes: application of the shapley value in finance," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(25), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]
  7. R.W.J. van den Goorbergh, 1999. "Value-at-Risk and least squares tail index estimation," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 578, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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