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Value-at-Risk and least squares tail index estimation

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Author Info
R.W.J. van den Goorbergh

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Abstract

The empirical evidence of heavy tails in stock return data is recognised by risk managers as an important factor in assessing the Value-at-Risk and risk profile of investment portfolios. Tail index estimation appears to be a tailor-made tool for estimating the extreme quantiles of heavy tailed distributions, as it exploits the information provided by the extreme observations. The tail shape of heavy tailed distributions resembles-to a first approximation-the hyperbolic shape of the Pareto distribution characterised by the so-called tail index. Ususally, a Hill-type estimator is used to estimate this tail index. This paper takes a new approach that hinges to a lesser extent on the choice of the treshold level and is easier to apply, by estimating the tail shape via least squares.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 578.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:578

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Related research
Keywords: Tail index estimation; Value-at-Risk; Hill estimator; least squares;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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  1. R.W.J. van den Goorbergh & P.J.G. Vlaar, 1999. "Value-at-Risk Analysis of Stock Returns Historical Simulation,Variance Techniques or Tail Index Estimation?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 40, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. De Haan, L. & Stadtmuller, U., 1992. "Generalized Regular Variation of Second Order," Papers 9268-a, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute.
  3. Jón Daníelsson & Casper G. de Vries, 1998. "Beyond the Sample: Extreme Quantile and Probability Estimation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-016/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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