Output gap and inflation in the EU
AbstractOutput gaps for 11 EU-countries, the US and Japan are constructed based on measures of potential output derived from a CES production technology. This technology accommodates differences in substitution elasticities between countries. Indeed, the empirical evidence shows that real wage elasticities of labour demand differ widely across countries. The output gaps constructed turn out to explain movements in inflation in a statistically significant way. Moreover, an aggregate European output gap significantly preceeds inflation in the EU-countries individually as well as aggregate European inflation. These findings imply that an aggregate European output gap is a sensible indicator for inflation to be considered in the policy preparation process at the ECB.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 550.
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
output gap; potential output; inflation; Phillips curve [order];
Other versions of this item:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
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