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The Timing of EU Expansion and the Real Exchange Rate

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Author Info
P.A.D. Cavelaars
Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of the timing of EU expansion on the real exchange rate between the accession countries' currencies and the euro. I ¯nd that the real exchange rate response to EU accession is smaller in the case of a postponed accession, as postponement gives the regions more time to converge. However, early EU accession would contribute to reducing the real exchange rate response to asymmetric productivity shocks, as increased bilateral trade reduces the size of the non-tradable goods sector, making the real exchange rate less sensitive to productivity shocks.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank in its series DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) with number 89.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:89

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Related research
Keywords: economic integration; real exchange rate; international trade; productivity shocks.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  2. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 00/30, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Craig Beaumont & Robert J. Corker & Dora M. Iakova & Rachel van Elkan, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies - Coping with Transition, Capital Inflows, and EU Accession," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/3, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998. "How Far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," IMF Working Papers 98/53, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976. "Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods," Working papers 178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  7. repec:fth:bfdipa:1/2000 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  10. Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU Enlargement: Economic Implications for Countries and Industries," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. George Kopits, 1999. "Implications of EMU for Exchange Rate Policy in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 99/9, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Daviddi, Renzo & Ilzkovitz, Fabienne, 1997. "The Eastern enlargement of the European Union: Major challenges for macro-economic policies and institutions of Central and East European countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 671-680, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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