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Exchange Rates and Fundamentals a Non-Linear Relationship?

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Author Info
P. de Grauwe
I. Vansteenkiste

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Abstract

We test whether the relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the news in its underlying fundamentals has non-linear features. In order to do so, we develop a Markov switching model and apply it to a sample of low and high inflation countries. The empirical analysis shows that for the high inflation countries the relationship between news in the fundamentals and the exchange rate changes is stable and significant. This is not the case, however, for the low inflation countries, where frequent regime switches occur. We develop two non-linear models that are capable of explaining our empirical findings. A first model is based on the existence of transaction costs; a second one assumes the existence of agents using different information to forecast the future exchange rate. In both cases we find that these simple non-linear models are capable of replicating the empirical evidence uncovered in this paper.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank in its series DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) with number 78.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:78

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Carlo Altavilla, 2000. "Measuring Monetary Policy Assymmetries across EMU Countries," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces0022, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Fratzscher, M., 1999. "What Causes Currency Crises: Sunspots, Contagion or Fundamentals?," Economics Working Papers eco99/39, European University Institute.
  9. De Grauwe, Paul, 1994. "Exchange Rates in Search of Fundamental Variables," CEPR Discussion Papers 1073, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2003. "Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Model with Noise Traders," Working Papers 162003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2005. "Non-Linearities in the Relation between the Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39. [Downloadable!]
  4. Serineh Najarian & H. L. Leon, 2003. "Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 03/159, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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