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Output Gap and Inflation in the EU

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  • W. Bolt
  • P.J.A. van Els

Abstract

Output gaps for 11 EU countries, the US and Japan are constructed based on measures of potential output derived from a CES production function. This production function accommodates differences in substitution elasticities between countries. Indeed, the empirical evidence shows that real wage elasticities of labour demand differ widely across countries. The national output gaps constructed turn out to significantly explain future changes in inflation. Moreover, the analysis also reveals that an aggregate European output gap significantly precedes aggregate European inflation, as well as inflation in the individual EU countries. These findings imply that an aggregate European output gap may serve as an inflation indicator for the preparation of a single European monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank in its series DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) with number 44.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:44

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Keywords: output gap; potential output; inflation; Phillips curve;

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References

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  1. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
  2. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  3. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Raymond Torres & John P. Martin, 1989. "Potential Output in the Seven Major OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 66, OECD Publishing.
  6. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
  7. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  8. Douglas Laxton & Peter B. Clark & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus," IMF Working Papers 95/76, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Rasi, Chris-Marie & Viikari, Jan-Markus, 1998. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Potential Output in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 6/1998, Bank of Finland.
  10. Fase, M. M. G. & Kramer, P. & Boeschoten, W. C., 1992. "MORKMON II : The Nederlandsche Bank's quarterly model of the Netherlands economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 146-204, April.
  11. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  12. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
  13. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  14. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 51-77.
  15. P Clark & D Laxton, 1997. "Phillips Curves," CEP Discussion Papers dp0344, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  17. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  18. repec:fth:bfsefi:6/98 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Maria Demertzis & Peter van Els & Sybille Grob & Marga Peeters, 2006. "EUROMON: the multi-country model of De Nederlandsche Bank," DNB Occasional Studies 401, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. H.M.M. Peeters, 1999. "Achieving price stability in the euro zone: Monetary or inflation targeting ?," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 589, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Dimitz, Maria Antoinette, 2001. "Output Gaps in European Monetary Union. New Insights from Input Augmentation in the Technological Progress," Economics Series 102, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  4. Michaelides, Panayotis & Milios, John, 2009. "TFP change, output gap and inflation in the Russian Federation (1994-2006)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 339-352, July.
  5. Yvonne Adema, 2004. "A Taylor Rule for the Euro Area Based on Quasi-Real Time Data," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 114, Netherlands Central Bank.
  6. Aleksejs Melihovs & Gundars Davidsons, 2006. "The Role of Production Progress and Human Capital in the Economic Growth of Latvia," Working Papers 2006/03, Latvijas Banka.
  7. Klump, Rainer & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2004. "Factor substitution and factor augmenting technical progress in the US: a normalized supply-side system approach," Working Paper Series 0367, European Central Bank.
  8. Niek Nahuis, 2003. "An alternative demand indicator: the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization'," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1339-1344.
  9. Peeters, H.M.M., 2000. "The Goldilocks economy of the United States in comparison with Europe: an analysis with EUROMON," MPRA Paper 29633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
  11. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Kiel Working Papers 1053, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  12. Paolo Guarda, 2002. "Potential output and the output gap in Luxembourg: some alternative methods," BCL working papers 4, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  13. Dainis Stikuts, 2003. "Measuring Output Gap in Latvia," Working Papers 2003/02, Latvijas Banka.
  14. Demertzis, Maria & Van Els, Peter & Peeters, H.M.M., 2002. "EUROMON: De Nederlandsche Bank's multi-country model," MPRA Paper 29634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Andreas Billmeier, 2009. "Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 391-419, December.
  16. Slevin, Geraldine, 2001. "Potential Output and the Output Gap in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/01, Central Bank of Ireland.
  17. Ewing, Bradley T. & Seyfried, William L, 2003. "Modeling The Philips Curve: A Time-Varying Volatility Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).

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