Co-Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of PPP-BasedExchange Rate Expectations
AbstractWe investigate international co-movements in bond yields by testing for uncovered interest parity. We supplement existing work by focussing on long instead of short-term interest rates, and, related to that, by employing exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity instead of actual outcomes. For the major floating currencies over the period 1975-97, we cannot support the notion of further increases in co-movement beyond that associated with the wave of financial market liberalization and deregulation in the early 1980s. Given the similarity between PPP-based UIP tests and those employing actual exchange rate outcomes, the value added of the former mainly lies with their ready availability.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank in its series DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) with number 37.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
interest parity relations; exchange rate expectations;
Other versions of this item:
- Klaas Knot & Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Co-Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of PPP-Based Exchange Rate Expectations," IMF Working Papers 99/81, International Monetary Fund.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Current Account Surpluses and the Interest Rate Island in Switzerland," IMF Working Papers 95/24, International Monetary Fund.
- Fletcher, Donna J & Taylor, Larry W, 1996. ""Swap" Covered Interest Parity in Long-Date Capital Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 530-38, August.
- Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August.
- Mark Holmes & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Capital controls and covered interest parity in the EU: Evidence from a panel-data unit root test," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 76-89, March.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
- Cavaglia, Stefano & Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1993.
"Further evidence on exchange rate expectations,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 78-98, February.
- Cavaglia, Stefano & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 1993. "Further evidence on exchange rate expectations," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-13903, Maastricht University.
- M.M.G. Fase & P.J.G. Vlaar, 1997. "International convergence of capital market interest rates," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 519, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Interest rate differentials and exchange rate policies in Austria, The Netherlands, and Belgium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 363-386, May.
- Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1994.
"A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987.
"Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March.
- Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Howard Howe & Charles Pigott, 1991. "Determinants of long-term interest rates: an empirical study of several industrial countries," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Win, pages 12-28.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995.
"Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates,"
Handbook of International Economics,
in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688
- Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Helen Popper, 1990. "International capital mobility: direct evidence from long-term currency swaps," International Finance Discussion Papers 386, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frank Browne & Warren Tease, 1992. "The Information Content of Interest Rate Spreads Across Financial Systems," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 109, OECD Publishing.
- Fell, J.P.C., 1996. "The Role of Short Rates and Foreign Long Rates in the Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Papers 4, European Monetary Institute.
- Charles Pigott, 1993. "International interest rate convergence: a survey of the issues and evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Win, pages 24-37.
- Adrian W. Throop, 1994. "International financial market integration and linkages of national interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-18.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546.
- Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenneth A. Froot, 1990. "Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bruce Kasman & Charles Pigott, 1988. "Interest rate divergences among the major industrial nations," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 28-44.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.