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Co-Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of PPP-BasedExchange Rate Expectations

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Author Info
J.M. Berk
K.H.W. Knot

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Abstract

We investigate international co-movements in bond yields by testing for uncovered interest parity. We supplement existing work by focussing on long instead of short-term interest rates, and, related to that, by employing exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity instead of actual outcomes. For the major floating currencies over the period 1975-97, we cannot support the notion of further increases in co-movement beyond that associated with the wave of financial market liberalization and deregulation in the early 1980s. Given the similarity between PPP-based UIP tests and those employing actual exchange rate outcomes, the value added of the former mainly lies with their ready availability.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank in its series DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) with number 37.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:37

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Related research
Keywords: interest parity relations; exchange rate expectations;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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  1. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Current Account Surpluses and the Interest Rate Island in Switzerland," IMF Working Papers 95/24, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Fell, J.P.C., 1996. "The Role of Short Rates and Foreign Long Rates in the Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Papers 4, European Monetary Institute.
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  4. Charles Pigott, 1993. "International interest rate convergence: a survey of the issues and evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Win, pages 24-37.
  5. Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mark Holmes & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Capital controls and covered interest parity in the EU: Evidence from a panel-data unit root test," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 76-89, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cavaglia, Stefano & Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1993. "Further evidence on exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 78-98, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. M.M.G. Fase & P.J.G. Vlaar, 1997. "International convergence of capital market interest rates," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 519, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  12. Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Interest rate differentials and exchange rate policies in Austria, The Netherlands, and Belgium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 363-386, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Adrian W. Throop, 1994. "International financial market integration and linkages of national interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
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  15. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Bruce Kasman & Charles Pigott, 1988. "Interest rate divergences among the major industrial nations," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Fall, pages 28-44.
  17. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Howard Howe & Charles Pigott, 1991. "Determinants of long-term interest rates: an empirical study of several industrial countries," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Win, pages 12-28.
  21. Kenneth A. Froot, 1990. "Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Helen Popper, 1990. "International capital mobility: direct evidence from long-term currency swaps," International Finance Discussion Papers 386, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  24. Frank Browne & Warren Tease, 1992. "The Information Content of Interest Rate Spreads Across Financial Systems," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 109, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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