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Monetary Transmission and Controllability of Money in Europe: aStructural Vector Error Correction Approach

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  • P.J.G. Vlaar
  • H. Schuberth

Abstract

In this paper, a structural vector error correction model (S-VECM) is estimated to investigate three essential prerequisites for a successful monetary targeting strategy: stability, controllability and predictability. First, multivariate cointegration techniques are used to identify two cointegration relations, that are identified as a long run money demand function and the Fisher effect for the long-term interest rate. Identification of the structural model is achieved by imposing contemporaneous and long-term restrictions. It is found that an interest rate shock hardly affects the nominal money stock, whereas the effects on excess money holdings and inflation are negative, but not significant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank in its series DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) with number 36.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:36

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  1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  2. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
  3. Vlaar, Peter J.G., 2004. "On The Asymptotic Distribution Of Impulse Response Functions With Long-Run Restrictions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 891-903, October.
  4. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
  5. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-29.
  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Jan Groen, 2004. "Corporate credit, stock price inflation and economic fluctuations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 1995-2006.
  2. Bruggeman, Annick & Donnay, Marie, 2003. "A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0264, European Central Bank.
  3. Imke Brüggemann, 2003. "Measuring Monetary Policy in Germany: A Structural Vector Error Correction Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4, pages 307-339, 08.
  4. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
  5. K.S.E.M. Hubrich & P.J.G. Vlaar, 2000. "Germany and the euro area: differences in the transmission process of monetary policy," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 613, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  6. Jan Gottschalk & Stéphanie Stolz, 2001. "The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro Area � A Simulation Experiment," Kiel Working Papers 1057, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Brand, Claus & Cassola, Nuno, 2000. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 0039, European Central Bank.
  8. Vlaar, Peter J. G., 2004. "Shocking the eurozone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 109-131, February.
  9. H.M.M. Peeters, 2000. "Achieving Price Stability in the Euro Zone: Monetary or InflationTargeting?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 43, Netherlands Central Bank.
  10. Jan Gottschalk & Felipe Martinez Rico & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2000. "Money as an Indicator in the Euro Zone," Kiel Working Papers 984, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  11. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2002. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0119, European Central Bank.
  12. Jan Gottschalk & Susanne Bröck, 2000. "Inflationsprognosen für den Euro-Raum: wie gut sind P*-Modelle?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 69(1), pages 69-89.
  13. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
  14. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.

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