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The (A)Symmetry of shocks in the EMU

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Author Info
Bastiaan A. Verhoef

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Abstract

A disadvantage of EMU is the lack of national monetary policy to absorb country-specific shocks. The seriousness of this depends on the availability of alternative adjustment mechanisms, as well as on the asymmetry of the demand and supply shocks within EMU. Previous empirical research on the asymmetry of shocks mainly focused on correlation coefficients between the shocks for some specific period. Therefore, it does not give a proper picture of the development of the symmetry of shocks in the EMU. The aim of this paper is to analyse empirically whether shocks in EMU became more or less symmetric. By using a moving principal component analysis the development of the symmetry of shocks will be much clearer. The results suggest that within EMU the symmetry of demand shocks increased during the last two decades, whilst the symmetry of the supply shocks also rose slightly. This suggested convergence of shocks helps the ECB to determine its monetary stance for the entire Euro zone.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank in its series DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) with number 106.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:106

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Related research
Keywords: demand and supply shocks EMU structural vector auto regression principal component analysis

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  4. Funke, Michael, 1997. "The Nature of Shocks in Europe and in Germany," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 461-69, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hallett & Ole Rummel, 2000. "Is the European union a natural currency area, or is it held together by policy makers?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(4), pages 657-679, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Elhanan Helpman, 1999. "The Structure of Foreign Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 121-144, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 1998. "International risk sharing and European monetary unification," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 211-238, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Fabiani, S. & Palenzuela-Rodriguez, D., 2001. "Model-Based Indicators of Labour Market Rigidity," Papers 57, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
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