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Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality

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  • J.A. Bikker
  • P.A.J. Metzemakers

Abstract

The current debate on the possible procyclicality of the new Basel Accord pays little attention to the procyclicality created by unsound loan loss provisioning. This paper investigates how bank provisioning behaviour is related to the business cycle, using 8,000 bank-year observations from 29 OECD countries over the past decade. Provisioning turns out to be substantially higher when GDP growth is lower, reflecting increased riskiness of the credit portfolio when the business cycle turns downwards, which also increases the risk of a credit crunch. This effect is mitigated somewhat as provisions rise in times when earnings are higher, suggesting income smoothing, and loan growth is higher, indicating increased riskiness.

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File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/en/binaries/ot050_tcm47-146060.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Directorate Supervision in its series Research Series Supervision (discontinued) with number 50.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:ressup:50

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Keywords: banks; loan loss provisioning; lending; credit crunch; business cycle; procyclicality; income smoothing; capital management;

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References

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  1. Luc Laeven & Giovanni Majnoni, 2002. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much too late?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. Demirguc, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1999. "Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 379-408, May.
  3. Kim, Daesik & Santomero, Anthony M., 1993. "Forecasting required loan loss reserves," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(3-4), pages 315-329.
  4. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  5. Tirole, Jean & Fudenberg, Drew, 1995. "A Theory of Income and Dividend Smoothing Based on Incumbency Rents," Scholarly Articles 3160494, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. J.A. Bikker & P.A.J. Metzemakers, 2002. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Research Series Supervision (discontinued) 50, Netherlands Central Bank, Directorate Supervision.
  7. Robert T. Clair, 1992. "Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 9-22.
  8. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group.
  9. Philip Lowe, 2002. "Credit risk measurement and procyclicality," BIS Working Papers 116, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. J.A. Bikker & H. Hu, 2003. "Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 86, Netherlands Central Bank.
  11. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2000. "Financial structure and bank profitability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2430, The World Bank.
  12. William R. Keeton, 1999. "Does faster loan growth lead to higher loan losses?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 57-75.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Levich, Richard & Majoni, Giovanni, 2002. "Ratings, rating agencies and the global financial system: Summary and policy implications," MPRA Paper 13249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. repec:imf:imfpdp:9606 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
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