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Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality

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Author Info
J.A. Bikker
P.A.J. Metzemakers

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Abstract

The current debate on the possible procyclicality of the new Basel Accord pays little attention to the procyclicality created by unsound loan loss provisioning. This paper investigates how bank provisioning behaviour is related to the business cycle, using 8,000 bank-year observations from 29 OECD countries over the past decade. Provisioning turns out to be substantially higher when GDP growth is lower, reflecting increased riskiness of the credit portfolio when the business cycle turns downwards, which also increases the risk of a credit crunch. This effect is mitigated somewhat as provisions rise in times when earnings are higher, suggesting income smoothing, and loan growth is higher, indicating increased riskiness.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Directorate Supervision in its series Research Series Supervision (discontinued) with number 50.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:ressup:50

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Related research
Keywords: banks; loan loss provisioning; lending; credit crunch; business cycle; procyclicality; income smoothing; capital management;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kim, Daesik & Santomero, Anthony M., 1993. "Forecasting required loan loss reserves," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(3-4), pages 315-329. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2000. "Financial structure and bank profitability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2430, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Philip Turner, 2000. "Procyclicality of Regulatory Ratios?," SCEPA Working Papers 2000-01, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School. [Downloadable!]
  5. Claudia Helene Dziobek, 1996. "Regulatory and Tax Treatment of Loan Loss Provisions," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 96/6, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1998. "Determinants of commercial bank interest margins and profitability : some international evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1900, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1995. "A Theory of Income and Dividend Smoothing Based on Incumbency Rents," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 75-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Robert T. Clair, 1992. "Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
  9. J.A. Bikker & H. Hu, 2003. "Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 86, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Dziobek, Claudia, 1996. "Regulatory and Tax Treatment of Loan Loss Provisions," IMF Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessments 96/6, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns : too much, too late?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2749, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kurt Hess & Arthur Grimes & Mark J. Holmes, 2008. "Credit Losses in Australasian Banking," Working Papers in Economics 08/10, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2006. "Banks'procyclicality behavior : does provisioning matter ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jaap Bikker & Paul Metzemakers, 2004. "Is bank capital procyclical? A cross-country analysis," DNB Working Papers 009, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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