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Cyclical patterns in profits provisioning and lending of banks and procyclicality of the new basel capital requirements

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Author Info
J.A. Bikker
Haixia Hu

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Abstract

The proposed risk sensitive minimum requirements of the new Basel Capital Accord have raised concerns about possible (acceleration of) procyclical behaviour of banking, which might threat en macroeconomic stability. This article analyses the interaction between business cycles and banks over the past two decades for 26 industrial countries. As expected, profit appear to move up and down with the business cycle, allowing for accumulation of capital in boom periods. Provisioning for credit losses rise when the cycle falls, but less so when net income of banks is relatively high, which reduces procyclicality. Lending fluctuates with the business cycle, too, but appears to be driven by demand rather than by supply factors such as (short age of ) capital, which cont radicts the assumptions underlying capital crunch theory. All in all, over the last decades, distortion caused by procyclical behaviour of banks has been limited, banking crises excepted.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Directorate Supervision in its series Research Series Supervision (discontinued) with number 39.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:ressup:39

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Keywords: profits; credit loss provisioning; lending; business cycle; procyclicality; credit crunch; bank lending channel; balance sheet;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Simon Kwan & Randy O'Toole, 1997. "Recent developments in loan loss provisioning at U.S. commercial banks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jul 25. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren, 1991. "The capital crunch: neither a borrower nor a lender be," Working Papers 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2000. "Financial structure and bank profitability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2430, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1998. "Determinants of commercial bank interest margins and profitability : some international evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1900, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Steven A. Sharpe, 1995. "Bank capitalization, regulation, and the credit crunch: a critical review of the research findings," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kevin L. Kliesen & John A. Tatom, 1992. "The recent credit crunch: the neglected dimensions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 18-36. [Downloadable!]
  8. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 16-41, February.
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  1. Biswa Swarup Misra, . "The Performance of Regional Rural Banks (RRBs) in India:Has Past Anything to Suggest for Future?," Journals, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kurt Hess & Arthur Grimes & Mark J. Holmes, 2008. "Credit Losses in Australasian Banking," Working Papers in Economics 08/10, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jaap Bikker & Paul Metzemakers, 2004. "Is bank capital procyclical? A cross-country analysis," DNB Working Papers 009, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Phong T. H. Ngo, 2006. "Endogenous Capital and Profitability in Banking," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2006-464, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Chakraborty, Suparna & Allen, Linda, 2007. "Revisiting the Level Playing Field: International Lending Responses to Divergences in Japanese Bank Capital Regulations from the Basel Accord," MPRA Paper 1805, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis & Delis, Manthos & Staikouras, Christos, 2006. "Determinants Of Bank Profitability In The South Eastern European Region," MPRA Paper 10274, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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