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EMU enlargement and convergence of pricelevels: Lessons from the German reunification

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Philipp Maier
Paul Cavelaars

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Abstract

We analyse the possible impact of EMU enlargement on inflation rates in the ac-cession countries. We establish two main points: first, using a theoretical model we show that if large initial differences in price levels occur, even under very favourable circumstances the optimal path for price adjustments should be asym-metric, i.e. occuring mostly in the candidate countries. Second, based on data from the German reunification we quantify the inflationary effect of price level convergence in the accession countries. Our findings indicate that (trend) inflation rates in the EMU candidate countries are likely to increase sharply, whereas the impact on the current euro area is likely to be small, albeit not negligible. Our results support the need to allow for some flexibility in the exchange rate arrangements with the candidate countries to facilitate gradual price level convergence prior to EMU enlargement.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department in its series MEB Series (discontinued) with number 2003-06.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:mebser:2003-06

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Related research
Keywords: Price level differences; convergence; EMU enlargement;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jose M. Campa & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Is Real Exchange Rate Mean Reversion Caused By Arbitrage?," NBER Working Papers 6162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ernst Fehr & Lorenz Goette, 2000. "Robustness and Real Consequences of Nominal Wage Rigidity," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. John H. Rogers, 2001. "Price level convergence, relative prices, and inflation in Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 699, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity:Causes and Welfare Costs," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0038, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Froot, Kenneth A. & Kim, Michael & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Law of One Price Over 700 Years," Working Papers 95-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Fehr, Ernst, 2000. "The Robustness and Real Consequences of Nominal Wage Rigidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 2516, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  11. Cohen, Daniel, 1997. "How Will the Euro behave?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Tomás Holub & Martin Cihák, 2001. "Convergence of Relative Prices and Inflation in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 01/124, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Kenneth Rogoff & Kenneth Froot & Michael Kim, 2001. "The Law of One Price Over 700 Years," IMF Working Papers 01/174, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2000. "Price Level Convergence Among United States Cities: Lessons for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 7681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession Countries," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alina Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 005221, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael Brandmeier, 2006. "Reasons for Real Appreciation in Central Europe," cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 55, cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, University of Goettingen (Germany).. [Downloadable!]
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