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The Stock Market and Consumer Confidence: European Evidence

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Author Info
W. Jos Jansen
Niek J. Nahuis

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Abstract

This paper studies the (short-run) relationship between stock market developments and consumer confidence in eleven European countries over the years 1986-2001. We find that stock returns and changes in sentiment are positively correlated for nine countries, with Germany as the main exception. Moreover, stock returns generally Granger-cause consumer confidence at very short horizons (two weeks to one month), but not vice versa. The stock market-confidence relationship is driven by expectations about economy-wide conditions rather than personal finances. This suggests that the confidence channel is not part of the conventional wealth effect, but a separate transmission channel.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department in its series MEB Series (discontinued) with number 2002-11.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:mebser:2002-11

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Related research
Keywords: consumer confidence; stock market; wealth effect;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. N.J. Nahuis, 2000. "Are Survey Indicators Useful for Monitoring Consumption Growth: Evidence from European Countries," MEB Series (discontinued) 2000-8, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. W.Jos Jansen & Ad C.J.Stokman, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-10, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Lennard van Gelder & Ad Stokman, 2006. "Regime transplants in GDP growth forecasting: A recipe for better predictions?," DNB Working Papers 106, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Karel-Jan Alsem & Steven Brakman & Lex Hoogduin & Gerard Kuper, 2004. "The Impact of Newspapers on Consumer Confidence: Does Spin Bias Exist?," DNB Working Papers 011, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Schmeling, Maik, 2008. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-407, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

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