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Are Survey Indicators Useful for Monitoring Consumption Growth: Evidence from European Countries

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  • N.J. Nahuis

Abstract

This paper analyses the information content of two potential survey indicators for consumption growth. Most short-term analyses only focus on consumer confidence, which measures confidence of buyers of consumption goods. However, this paper shows that this is optimal for only three of the eight countries in our sample. For the other countries the retail sales indicator, a measure of confidence of sellers of consumption goods, can improve the quality of short-term analyses substantially. For the UK this indicator even outperforms consumer confidence. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and the retail sales indicator into a composite indicator leads to optimal results.

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File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/ms2000-08_tcm46-147296.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department in its series MEB Series (discontinued) with number 2000-8.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:mebser:2000-8

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  1. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  2. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1986. "On the information content of consumer survey expectations," Special Studies Papers 204, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Djerf, Kari & Takala, Kari, 1997. "Macroeconomy and Consumer Sentiment: Performance of the Finnish Consumer Barometer after Ten Years," Research Discussion Papers 20/1997, Bank of Finland.
  4. A. Bayar & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "Determinants of private consumption," European Economy - Economic Papers 135, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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Cited by:
  1. W. Jos Jansen & Niek J. Nahuis, 2002. "The Stock Market and Consumer Confidence: European Evidence," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-11, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
  2. GORMUS Sakir & GUNES, Sevcan, 2010. "Consumer Confidence, Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: The Case Of Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
  3. Dudek, SÅ‚awomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Xiaohui Liu & Chang Shu, 2004. "Consumption and stock markets in Asian economies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 483-496.
  5. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Hess, Dieter & Niessen, Alexandra, 2007. "The early news catches the attention: On the relative price impact of similar economic indicators," CFR Working Papers 07-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

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