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Are Survey Indicators Useful for Monitoring Consumption Growth: Evidence from European Countries

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N.J. Nahuis

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Abstract

This paper analyses the information content of two potential survey indicators for consumption growth. Most short-term analyses only focus on consumer confidence, which measures confidence of buyers of consumption goods. However, this paper shows that this is optimal for only three of the eight countries in our sample. For the other countries the retail sales indicator, a measure of confidence of sellers of consumption goods, can improve the quality of short-term analyses substantially. For the UK this indicator even outperforms consumer confidence. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and the retail sales indicator into a composite indicator leads to optimal results.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department in its series MEB Series (discontinued) with number 2000-8.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:mebser:2000-8

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Djerf, Kari & Takala, Kari, 1997. "Macroeconomy and Consumer Sentiment: Performance of the Finnish Consumer Barometer after Ten Years," Research Discussion Papers 20/1997, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1988. "On the Information Content of Consumer Survey Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 140-44, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. W. Jos Jansen & Niek J. Nahuis, 2002. "The Stock Market and Consumer Confidence: European Evidence," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-11, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Xiaohui Liu & Chang Shu, 2004. "Consumption and stock markets in Asian economies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 483-496, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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