Systemic Risk Allocation for Systems with A Small Number of Banks
AbstractThis paper provides a new estimation method for the marginal expected shortfall (MES) based on multivariate extreme value theory. In contrast to previous studies, the method does not assume specific dependence structure among bank equity returns and is applicable to both large and small systems. Furthermore, our MES estimator inherits the theoretical additive property. Thus, it serves as a tool to allocate systemic risk. We apply the proposed method to 29 global systemically important financial institutions (G-SIFIs) to evaluate the cross sections and dynamics of the systemic risk allocation. We show that allocating systemic risk according to either size or individual risk is imperfect and can be unfair. Between the allocation with respect to individual risk and that with respect to size, the former is less unfair. On the time dimension, both allocation fairness across all the G-SIFIs has decreased since 2008.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 378.
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Systemic risk allocation; marginal expected shortfall; systemically important financial institutions; extreme value theory;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-06-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-06-04 (Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2013-06-04 (Risk Management)
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