Transmission of the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises to the EMU: Stock Prices, CDS Spreads and Exchange Rates
AbstractThis paper tests for the transmission of the 2007-2010 financial and sovereign debt crises to fifteen EMU countries. We use daily data from 2003 to 2010 on country financial and non-financial stock market indexes. First, we find strong evidence of crisis transmission to European non-financials from US non-financials, whereas the increase in dependence of European financials on US financials is rather limited. Second, in order to test how the sovereign debt crisis affected stock market developments we split the crisis in pre- and post-Lehman sub periods. Results show that financials become significantly more dependent on changes in Greek CDS spreads after Lehman's collapse, compared to the pre-Lehman sub period. However, this increase is not present for non-financials. Third, before the crisis euro appreciations are associated with European stock market decreases, whereas during the crisis this is reversed. Finally, the reversal in the relationship between the Eurodollar exchange rate and stock prices seems to have been triggered by Lehman's collapse.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 287.
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
financial crisis; euro exchange rate; EMU; equity markets; sovereign debt;
Other versions of this item:
- Grammatikos, Theoharry & Vermeulen, Robert, 2012. "Transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the EMU: Stock prices, CDS spreads and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 517-533.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2011-04-09 (European Economics)
- NEP-IFN-2011-04-09 (International Finance)
- NEP-OPM-2011-04-09 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
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