Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households
AbstractDespite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate these puzzles, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 228.
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Subjective Probability; Stock Market Participation; Survey Research.;
Other versions of this item:
- Hurd, Michael & Van Rooij, Marten & Winter, Joachim, 2010. "Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households," MEA discussion paper series 10206, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Michael D. Hurd & Maarten van Rooij & Joachim Winter, 2010. "Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households," NBER Working Papers 16464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-01-10 (All new papers)
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