Early Warning or Just Wise After the Event?
AbstractThe effectiveness of cyclically adjusted balances (CABs) as an indicator of the health of public finances depends on the accuracy with which cyclically adjusted figures can be calculated in real time. This paper measures the accuracy of such figures using a specially constructed real time dataset containing published values of deficits, output gaps and cyclically adjusted deficits from successive issues of OECD economic outlook. We find that data revisions are so great that real time CABs have low power in detecting fiscal slippages as defined by the ex post data. We find that the around half of the real time errors in CABs can be attributed to revisions in the cyclical component of the budget balance, and around one half to revisions in the deficit to GDP ratio across vintages.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 124.
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jakob de Haan & Helge Berger & David-Jan Jansen, 2003.
"The End of the Stability and Growth Pact?,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1093, CESifo Group Munich.
- Alain GUAY & Pierre SAINT-AMANT, 2005.
"Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?,"
Annales d'Economie et de Statistique,
ENSAE, issue 77, pages 133-155.
- Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 53, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2007.
"On the Relationship between Fiscal Plans in the European Union: An Empirical Analysis Based on Real-Time Data,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giuliodori, Massimo & Beetsma, Roel, 2008. "On the relationship between fiscal plans in the European Union: An empirical analysis based on real-time data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 221-242, June.
- de Haan, Jakob & Berger, Helge & Jansen, David-Jan, 2003. "The end of stability and growth pact?," Discussion Papers 2003/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Forni, Lorenzo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004.
"Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data,"
4315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lorenzo Forni & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 540, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000.
"Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 7460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew Hughes Hallett & Drew Scott, 2010.
"Scotland: A New Fiscal Settlement,"
CDMA Working Paper Series
201009, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2008. "Coordination without Explicit Cooperation: Monetary-Fiscal Interactions in an Era of Demographic Change," European Economy - Economic Papers 305, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Cepparulo, Alessandra & Gastaldi, Francesca & Giuriato, Luisa & Sacchi, Agnese, 2011. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy:the Italian case," MPRA Paper 32474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Karsten Staehr, 2007.
"Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1933, CESifo Group Munich.
- Staehr, Karsten, 2008. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 46-69, March.
- Karsten Staehr, 2007. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 08 Mar 2007.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008.
"Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data,"
DNB Working Papers
169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard C.K. Burdekin & King Banaian & Mark Hallerberg & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary institutions and policies: onward and upward?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 340-354, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.