Credit Booms in Emerging Market Economies: A Recipe for Banking Crises?
AbstractThis paper investigates whether credit booms are an important warning signal for banking crises in Asian and Latin American emerging market economies. Based on a signalling leading indicator model, the results suggest that credit booms are indeed a prelude for banking crises, especially in Latin America. To minimise a policymaker's loss- function, it is optimal to take precautionary actions in the event credit growth rises substantially above its trend.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 046.
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
emerging markets; credit booms and banking crises;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-06-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2005-06-27 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-SEA-2005-06-27 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May.
- Barry Eichengreen and Carlos Arteta., 2000.
"Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C00-115, University of California at Berkeley.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Arteta, Carlos, 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt3pk9t1h2, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Barry Eichengreen & Carlos Arteta, 2001. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Macroeconomics 0012012, EconWPA.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001.
"Lending Booms: Latin America and the World,"
NBER Working Papers
8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002.
"Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
755, CESifo Group Munich.
- Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 111-155.
- Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation," NBER Working Papers 9219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003. "Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties," IMF Working Papers 03/213, International Monetary Fund.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998.
"The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework,"
NBER Working Papers
6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
- Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
- Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
- Marco Terrones & Enrique Mendoza, 2013. "Anatomy of credit booms and their demise," 2013 Meeting Papers 649, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008.
"An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lahura, Erick & Chang, Giancarlo & Salazar, Oscar, 2013. "Identificación de Episodios de Auge Crediticio: Una propuesta Metodológica con Fundamentos Económicos," Working Papers 2013-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Julian Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom- Bust Cycles," Research Department Publications 4775, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Burcu Aydin, 2008. "Banking Structure and Credit Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/215, International Monetary Fund.
- Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2012.
"An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise,"
NBER Working Papers
18379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.