EMU enlargement, inflation and adjustment of tradable goods prices: What to expect?
AbstractInflation differentials resulting from EMU enlargement have so far mostly been discussed within the Balassa-Samuelson framework, i.e. resulting from inflation in nontradable goods. We analyse the inflationary consequences of convergenceof tradable goods' prices. Using disaggregated price level data, simulations show that inflation in the new EU member states might on average be 1.5-3.5 percentage points higher than in the current euro area (with considerable variation between the new EU members). These inflationary effects even exceed most simulations of the Balassa-Samuelson effect. The `burden of adjustment' rests mainly on the shoulders of the new EU members if the European Central Bank sets monetary policy in response to inflation developments in the entire currency area. In contrast the impact of EMU enlargement on the current euro area is limited, due to the small economic weight of the new EU member states.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 010.
Date of creation: Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Price level differences; convergence; EMU enlargement;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
- F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-12-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2004-12-12 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CMP-2004-12-12 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-EEC-2004-12-12 (European Economics)
- NEP-EEC-2004-12-27 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2004-12-12 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- TomÃ¡s Holub & Martin CihÃ¡k, 2001. "Convergence of Relative Prices and Inflation in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 01/124, International Monetary Fund.
- Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, .
"Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates,"
32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John R. Baldwin & Beiling Yan, 2004. "The Law of One Price: A Canada/U.S. exploration," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(1), pages 1-10, 03.
- Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon & Ravn, Morten O. & Rey, Hélène, 2003.
"PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43, January.
- Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0307, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
- Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberola, Enrique & Tyrväinen, Timo, 1998.
"Is There Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries,"
Research Discussion Papers
15/1998, Bank of Finland.
- Enrique Alberola-Ila & Tymo Tyrväinen, 1998. "Is there Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 9823, Banco de Espa�a.
- Louis Kuijs & Alain Borghijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe," IMF Working Papers 04/2, International Monetary Fund.
- Taglioni, Daria & Anderton, Robert & Baldwin, Richard E., 2003.
"The impact of monetary union on trade prices,"
Working Paper Series
0238, European Central Bank.
- Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995.
"How wide is the border?,"
Research Working Paper
95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," International Finance Discussion Papers 498, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Engel, C. & Rogers, J.H., 1995. "How Wide is the Border?," Papers 4-95-16, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1994. "How Wide is the Border?," NBER Working Papers 4829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2002. "Price Index Convergence Among United States Cities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1081-1099, November.
- John H. Rogers, 2001. "Price level convergence, relative prices, and inflation in Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 699, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Maier, Philipp & Cavelaars, Paul, 2004. "Convergence of price levels: lessons from the German reunification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 467-481, September.
- Jose M. Campa & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Is Real Exchange Rate Mean Reversion Caused By Arbitrage?," NBER Working Papers 6162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- García-Solanes, José & Sancho-Portero, F. Israel & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2008.
"Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson effect in some new member states of the European Union,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 17-32, March.
- José García-Solanes & Francisco I. Sancho-Portero & Fernando Torrejón-Flores, 2007. "Beyond the Salassa-Samuelson Effect in some New Member States of the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1886, CESifo Group Munich.
- Riemer P. Faber & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2005. "Price Convergence in Europe from a Macro Perspective: Product Categories and Reliability," DNB Working Papers 034, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Lein-Rupprecht, Sarah M. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nerlich, Carolin, 2007.
"How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?,"
Working Paper Series
0827, European Central Bank.
- Lein, Sarah M. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nerlich, Carolin, 2008. "How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 227-248, March.
- Gabriele Galati & William R. Melick, 2006. "The evolving inflation process: an overview," BIS Working Papers 196, Bank for International Settlements.
- García Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2009.
"The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Developed Countries and Emerging Market Economies: Different Outcomes Explained,"
Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal,
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(2), pages 1-24.
- García Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2008. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Developed Countries and Emerging Market Economies: Different Outcomes Explained," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.