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Government Outlays, Economic Growth and Unemployment: A VAR Model

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  • Siyan Wang

    (Department of Economics,University of Delaware)

  • Burton A. Abrams

    (Department of Economics,University of Delaware)

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic effects of government outlays on economic growth and the unemployment rate. Using vector autoregression and data from twenty OECD countries over three recent decades, we found: (1) positive shocks to government outlays slow down economic growth and raise the unemployment rate; (2) different types of government outlays have different effects on growth and unemployment, with transfers and subsidies having a larger effect than government purchases; (3) causality runs one-way from government outlays to economic growth and the unemployment rate; (4) the above results are not sensitive to how government outlays are financed.

Suggested Citation

  • Siyan Wang & Burton A. Abrams, 2011. "Government Outlays, Economic Growth and Unemployment: A VAR Model," Working Papers 11-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dlw:wpaper:11-13.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jason E. Taylor & Ronald L. Klingler, 2016. "Fiscal Contraction and Economic Expansion: The 2013 Sequester and Post–World War II Spending Cuts," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(1), pages 69-88, Winter.
    2. Antonio Afonso & Hüseyin Sen & Ayse Kaya, 2021. "Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 235(1), pages 133-170, March.
    3. Siyan Wang & Burton A. Abrams, 2011. "The Effect of Government Size on the Steady-State Unemployment Rate: A Dynamic Perspective," Working Papers 11-12, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    4. Nargiza Alymkulova & Nurlan Atabaev & Junus Ganiev, 2016. "Var — analysis of global financial economic crisis impact on public budget and unemployment: evidence from the economy of the Kyrgyz republic," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1090-1101.
    5. Alymkulova Nargiza Bakytovna & Atabaev Nurlan Uzgenovich & Ganiev Junus Mashrapovich, 2016. "Var - analysis of Global financial economic crisis impact on public budget and unemployment: evidence from the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic," Экономика региона, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки «Институт экономики Уральского отделения Российской академии наук», vol. 12(4), pages 1090-1101.
    6. Burton A. Abrams & Siyan Wang, 2007. "The Effect of Government Size on the Steady-State Unemployment Rate: An Error Correction Model," Working Papers 07-14, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government outlays; economic growth; unemployment rate; vector autoregression; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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