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Dolarización y Pobreza en Ecuador

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  • Ricardo N. Bebczuk

    ()
    (Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS) - FCE - UNLP)

Abstract

El presente estudio cuantifica el efecto directo de la dolarización sobre la pobreza en Ecuador. Para ello, en base a información de la Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida para 1999 y 2005/6, se corren microsimulaciones para evaluar cuatro canales directos de transmisión entre dolarización y pobreza, a saber: (1) el cambio en la estructura de empleo y salarios a favor de bienes no transables, atribuible a la apreciación del tipo de cambio real; (2) el cambio de la estructura de gasto de los hogares a favor de bienes transables, por idéntico motivo; (3) la pérdida de poder adquisitivo de las remesas del exterior; y (4) la expansión del crédito de la mano de la estabilidad y crecimiento post-dolarización. La dolarización parece haber tenido un significativo efecto reductor de la pobreza, explicando entre el 22% (pobreza moderada) y el 31% (pobreza extrema) de la caída total observada en el headcount. Para el caso de la brecha, estos valores ascienden a 27% y 40%. La mayor incidencia la ha tenido el abaratamiento de los bienes transables en la canasta de consumo (responsable del 64% del efecto total) y la reasignación laboral hacia el sector no transable (32% del efecto total). Tanto el efecto positivo del crédito como el negativo de las remesas resultaron relativamente bajos. Por otra parte, regresiones logit revelan que la probabilidad de ser pobre fue 10 puntos porcentuales inferior en 2005/6 respecto a 1999, sugiriendo que los factores macroeconómicos han jugado un papel significativo en la reducción observada de los niveles de pobreza. Si bien el veredicto sobre la dolarización resulta positivo en términos de pobreza, es indudable que reducciones adicionales requerirán el logro de altas tasas de crecimiento a nivel agregado que beneficien a los sectores de menores ingresos.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata in its series CEDLAS, Working Papers with number 0066.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dls:wpaper:0066

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Postal: Calle 48 No555 - La Plata (1900)
Phone: 21- 1466
Fax: 54-21-25-9536
Web page: http://cedlas.econo.unlp.edu.ar/
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Cited by:
  1. Ricardo Bebczuk, 2009. "SME Access to Credit in Guatemala and Nicaragua: Challenging Conventional Wisdom with New Evidence," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0080, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.

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