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Strategic Investment in International Gas-Transport Systems: A Dynamic Analysis of the Hold-up Problem

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  • Franz Hubert
  • Irina Suleymanova

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model of strategic investment in a transnational pipeline system. In the absence of international contract enforcement, countries may distort investment in order to increase their bargaining power, resulting in overinvestment in expensive and underinvestment in cheap pipelines. With repeated interaction, however, there is a potential to increase efficiency through dynamic collusion. In the theoretical part we establish a fundamental asymmetry: it is easier to avoid overinvestment than underinvestment. Calibrating the model to fit the Eurasian pipeline system for natural gas, we find that the potential to improve efficiency through dynamic cooperation is large. In reality, however, only modest improvements over the non-cooperative solution have been achieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Hubert & Irina Suleymanova, 2008. "Strategic Investment in International Gas-Transport Systems: A Dynamic Analysis of the Hold-up Problem," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 846, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp846
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franz Hubert & Svetlana Ikonnikova, 2011. "Investment Options And Bargaining Power: The Eurasian Supply Chain For Natural Gas," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 85-116, March.
    2. Christian von Hirschhausen & Berit Meinhart & Ferdinand Pavel, 2005. "Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe A Simulation Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 49-68.
    3. Waft Grais & Kangbin Zheng, 1996. "Strategic Interdependence in European East-West Gas Trade: A Hierarchical Stackelberg Game Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 61-84.
    4. Switgard Feuerstein & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "Is capital a collusion device?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 21(1), pages 133-154, January.
    5. Inderst, Roman & Wey, Christian, 2003. "Bargaining, Mergers, and Technology Choice in Bilaterally Oligopolistic Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(1), pages 1-19, Spring.
    6. Ilya Segal, 2003. "Collusion, Exclusion, and Inclusion in Random-Order Bargaining," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 439-460.
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    Cited by:

    1. Csercsik, Dávid & Hubert, Franz & Sziklai, Balázs R. & Kóczy, László Á., 2019. "Modeling transfer profits as externalities in a cooperative game-theoretic model of natural gas networks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 355-365.
    2. Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2012. "Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 642-650.
    3. Hubert Franz & Cobanli Onur, 2015. "Pipeline Power: A Case Study of Strategic Network Investments," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 75-110, June.
    4. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    5. Guych Nuryyev & Tomasz Korol & Ilia Tetin, 2021. "Hold-Up Problems in International Gas Trade: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Ekaterina Orlova & Franz Hubert, 2012. "Competition or Countervailing Power for the European Gas Market," EcoMod2012 4490, EcoMod.
    7. András Kiss, Adrienn Selei, and Borbála Takácsné Tóth, 2016. "A Top-Down Approach to Evaluating Cross-Border Natural Gas Infrastructure Projects in Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    8. Chi Kong Chyong & David Reiner & Dhruvak Aggarwal, 2021. "Market power and long-term gas contracts: the case of Gazprom in Central and Eastern European Gas Markets," Working Papers EPRG2115, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    9. Gijsbert Zwart & S. Ikonnikova, 2010. "Reinforcing buyer power: Trade quotas and supply diversification in the EU natural gas market," CPB Discussion Paper 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Hubert, Franz & Orlova, Ekaterina, 2018. "Network access and market power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 170-185.
    11. Le Coq, Chloe & Paltseva, Elena, 2012. "The EU-Russia Gas Relationship: a mutual dependency," SITE Working Paper Series 18, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    12. Schulte, Simon & Weiser, Florian, 2017. "Natural Gas Transits and Market Power - The Case of Turkey," EWI Working Papers 2017-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 15 Aug 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multilateral bargaining; Hold-up; irreversible investment; collusion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • C71 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Cooperative Games

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