A Markov Switching Model of the Merit Order to Compare British and German Price Formation
AbstractThe objective of this paper is to develop a model to determine the price formation of wholesale electricity markets. For that purpose, we model wholesale electricity prices depending on the prices of fuels (coal and natural gas) and of CO2 emission allowances using a Markov Switching Regression. We apply the model to wholesale electricity prices in the UK and in Germany. While British electricity prices are quite well explained by short-run cost factors, we find a decoupling between electricity prices and fuel costs in Germany. This may be evidence that the German electricity generation sector does not work competitively.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 714.
Length: 15 p.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Electricity prices; Markov Switching Models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-08-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2007-08-14 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-MIC-2007-08-14 (Microeconomics)
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