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A Markov Switching Model of the Merit Order to Compare British and German Price Formation

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Author Info
Georg Zachmann

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to develop a model to determine the price formation of wholesale electricity markets. For that purpose, we model wholesale electricity prices depending on the prices of fuels (coal and natural gas) and of CO2 emission allowances using a Markov Switching Regression. We apply the model to wholesale electricity prices in the UK and in Germany. While British electricity prices are quite well explained by short-run cost factors, we find a decoupling between electricity prices and fuel costs in Germany. This may be evidence that the German electricity generation sector does not work competitively.

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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 714.

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Length: 15 p.
Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp714

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Related research
Keywords: Electricity prices; Markov Switching Models;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Catherine D. Wolfram, 1998. "Strategic Bidding in a Multiunit Auction: An Empirical Analysis of Bids to Supply Electricity in England and Wales," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(4), pages 703-725, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Arciniegas, Ismael & Barrett, Chris & Marathe, Achla, 2003. "Assessing the efficiency of US electricity markets," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 75-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2001. "Regime Jumps in Electricity Prices," Research Paper ERS-2001-48-F&A Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
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