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Political Instability and the August 1998 Ruble Crisis

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Author Info
Tatiana Fic
Omar F. Saqib

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Abstract

The main objective of this study is to highlight the importance of political instability, defined as frequent changes in and of government, in undermining the Russian exchange rate based stabilization program of the 1990s. The empirical evidence supports the significance of political instability along with economic fundamentals in determining Russian real effective exchange rate and exchange market pressure, used as a proxy to the crisis.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.44717.de/dp626.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 626.

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Length: 17 p.
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp626

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Related research
Keywords: Currency crises; political instability;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation

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  1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla & Otker, Inci, 1997. "Likelihood versus timing of speculative attacks: A case study of Mexico," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 837-845, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ozler, Sule & Tabellini, Guido, 1991. "External Debt and Political Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 582, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Levin, Mark & Satarov, Georgy, 2000. "Corruption and institutions in Russia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 113-132, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Alesina, A. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," Papers 6-91, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
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  7. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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