Russian Natural Gas Exports to Europe: Effects of Russian Gas Market Reforms and the Rising Market Power of Gazprom
AbstractGazprom, the dominant gas company in Russia, is widely believed to be the key supplier of gas to Europe in the foreseeable future. However, there are numerous uncertainties and challenges within the Russian and European gas industry that may alter the allocation of Gazprom´s gas sales between domestic and export markets. In this paper we use both theoretical and numerical models to study potential effects on Russian gas exports from changes in Russian domestic gas prices and the production capacities in 2015. We also investigate whether the liberalization of the European gas markets may provide incentives for Gazprom to induce monopoly power in its export markets. Our main findings suggest that both increased domestic gas prices and sufficient production capacities are vital to maintain Gazprom´s market share in Europe over the next decade. At low domestic prices, Gazprom may even have difficulties to carry out its long-term export commitments. However, if export possibilities are ample due to both lower domestic demand at higher prices and high overall production capacities, a large share of spot trades in Europe may encourage Gazprom to exercise market power in its export markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 597.
Length: 30 p.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Russia; Natural gas; production capacity; export; Western Europe; price; numerical model;
Other versions of this item:
- Eirik Lund Sagen & Marina Tsygankova, 2006. "Russian Natural Gas Exports to Europe. Effects of Russian gas market reforms and the rising market power of Gazprom," Discussion Papers 445, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Monopoly
- Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-06-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-COM-2006-06-24 (Industrial Competition)
- NEP-EEC-2006-06-24 (European Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2006-06-24 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2006-06-24 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
- Holtsmark, Bjart & Maestad, Ottar, 2002. "Emission trading under the Kyoto Protocol--effects on fossil fuel markets under alternative regimes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-218, February.
- Catherine Locatelli, 2003. "The viability of deregulation in the russian gas industry," Post-Print halshs-00001308, HAL.
- Mohammed A. Al-Sahlawi, 1989. "The Demand for Natural Gas: A Survey of Price and Income Elasticities," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 77-90.
- David G. Tarr & Peter D. Thomson, 2004. "The Merits of Dual Pricing of Russian Natural Gas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1173-1194, 08.
- Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2002. "The liberalisation of the European gas market and its consequences for Russia," Post-Print halshs-00177828, HAL.
- Quast, Oliver & Locatelli, Catherine, 1997. "Russian natural gas policy and its possible effects on European gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 125-133, February.
- Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2002. "The liberalisation of the European gas market and its consequences for Russia," Post-Print halshs-00187059, HAL.
- Spanjer, Aldo, 2007. "Russian gas price reform and the EU-Russia gas relationship: Incentives, consequences and European security of supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2889-2898, May.
- Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009.
"The Global Natural Gas Market: Will Transport Cost Reductions Lead to Lower Prices?,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-40.
- Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2007. "The Global Natural Gas Market. Will transport cost reductions lead to lower prices?," Discussion Papers 523, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2006. "L'interdépendance gazière de la Russie et de l'Union européenne : quel équilibre entre le marché et la géopolitique ?," Post-Print halshs-00119602, HAL.
- Catherine Locatelli, 2008. "Gazprom's export strategies under the institutional constraint of the Russian gas market," Post-Print halshs-00341660, HAL.
- Marina Tsygankova, 2007. "The export of Russian gas to Europe: breaking up the monopoly of Gazprom," Discussion Papers 494, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2008. "Russian and European gas interdependence. Can market forces balance out geopolitics?," Post-Print halshs-00129618, HAL.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.