Analyzing E-Learning Adoption via Recursive Partitioning
AbstractThe paper analyzes factors that influence the adoption of e-learning and gives an example of how to forecast technology adoption based on a post-hoc predictive segmentation using a classification and regression tree (CART). We find strong evidence for the existence of technological interdependencies and organizational learning effects. Furthermore, we find different paths to elearning adoption. The results of the analysis suggest a growing "digital divide" among firms. We use cross-sectional data from a European survey about e-business in June 2002, covering almost 6,000 enterprises in 15 industry sectors and 4 countries. Comparing the predictive quality of CART, we find that CART outperforms a traditional logistic regression. The results are more parsimonious, i. e. CARTs use less explanatory variables, better interpretable since different paths of adoption are detected, and from a statistical standpoint, because interactions between the covariates are taken into account.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 346.
Length: 39 p.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Technology Adoption; Path Dependence; Interaction between Different Technologies; Regression Trees; Predictive Segmentation; Logistic Regression; E-Learning; E-Business;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- L29 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-05-18 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
- Dosi, Giovanni, 1982.
"Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change,"
Research Policy, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 147-162, June.
- Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
- William D. Nordhaus, 2000.
"Productivity Growth and the New Economy,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
1284, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Brynjolfsson, Erik & Hitt, Lorin M., 2004.
"Computing Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence,"
Working papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management
4210-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Colombo, Massimo G & Mosconi, Rocco, 1995. "Complementarity and Cumulative Learning Effects in the Early Diffusion of Multiple Technologies," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 13-48, March.
- Reinganum, Jennifer F., .
"On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach,"
Working Papers, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences
312, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Reinganum, Jennifer F, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405, July.
- Church, Jeffrey & Gandal, Neil, 1993.
"Complementary network externalities and technological adoption,"
International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 239-260, June.
- Church, J. & Gandal, N., 1991. "Complementary Network Externalities and Technological Adoption," Papers, Tel Aviv 5-91, Tel Aviv.
- Georg GÃ¶tz, 1999.
"Monopolistic Competition and the Diffusion of New Technology,"
RAND Journal of Economics,
The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(4), pages 679-693, Winter.
- Georg GÃ–TZ, 1996. "Monopolistic Competition and the Diffusion of New Technology," Vienna Economics Papers, University of Vienna, Department of Economics vie9610, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
- Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U. S. Economy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1911, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Jensen, Richard, 1982. "Adoption and diffusion of an innovation of uncertain profitability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 182-193, June.
- Stoneman, Paul & Kwon, Myung-Joong, 1994. "The Diffusion of Multiple Process Technologies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 420-31, March.
- Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equilization in the Adoption of New Technology," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.