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Hidden Skewness: On the Difficulty of Multiplicative Compounding under Random Shocks

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  • Ludwig Ensthaler
  • Olga Nottmeyer
  • Georg Weizsäcker
  • Christian Zankiewicz

Abstract

Multiplicative growth processes that are subject to random shocks often have a skewed distribution of outcomes. In a number of incentivized laboratory experiments we show that a large majority of participants either strongly underestimate skewness or ignore it completely. Participants misperceive the outcome distribution's spread to be far too narrow-band and they estimate the median to lie too close to the distribution's center. The observed bias in expectations is irrespective to risk preferences and fairly robust to feedback. It is consistent with a behavioral model in which geometric growth is confused with linear growth. The misperception is a possible explanation of investors' difficulties with real-world financial products like leveraged ETFs.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludwig Ensthaler & Olga Nottmeyer & Georg Weizsäcker & Christian Zankiewicz, 2013. "Hidden Skewness: On the Difficulty of Multiplicative Compounding under Random Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1337, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1337
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    1. Ludwig Ensthaler & Olga Nottmeyer & Georg Weizsäcker & Christian Zankiewicz, 2018. "Hidden Skewness: On the Difficulty of Multiplicative Compounding Under Random Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1693-1706, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kieren, Pascal & Weber, Martin, 2019. "When saving is not enough: The wealth decumulation decision in retirement," CFS Working Paper Series 634, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Matthew R Levy & Joshua Tasoff, 2016. "Misunderestimation: exponential-growth bias and time-varying returns," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 29-34.
    3. Nicolas Eber & Patrick Roger & Tristan Roger, 2024. "Finance and intelligence: An overview of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 503-554, April.
    4. D’Hondt, Catherine & McGowan, Richard & Roger, Patrick, 2021. "Trading leveraged Exchange-Traded products is hazardous to your wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 287-302.
    5. Jose Apesteguia & Jörg Oechssler & Simon Weidenholzer, 2020. "Copy Trading," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5608-5622, December.
      • Jose Apesteguia & Jörg Oechssler & Simon Weidenholzer, 2018. "Copy Trading," Working Papers 1048, Barcelona School of Economics.
      • Jose Apesteguia & Jörg Oechssler & Simon Weidenholzer, 2018. "Copy trading," Economics Working Papers 1615, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2019.
    6. Ludwig Ensthaler & Olga Nottmeyer & Georg Weizsäcker & Christian Zankiewicz, 2018. "Hidden Skewness: On the Difficulty of Multiplicative Compounding Under Random Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1693-1706, April.
    7. Levy, Matthew & Tasoff, Joshua, 2016. "Exponential-growth bias and lifecycle consumption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102087, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Matthew Levy & Joshua Tasoff, 2016. "Exponential-Growth Bias and Lifecycle Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 545-583.
    9. Wenner, Lukas M., 2018. "Do sellers exploit biased beliefs of buyers? An experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 194-215.
    10. Apesteguia, Jose & Oechssler, Jörg & Weidenholzer, Simon, 2018. "Copy Trading," Working Papers 0649, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    11. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 2018. "Do stocks outperform Treasury bills?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 440-457.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral Economics; Multiplicative Compounding; Skewness Neglect; Exponential Growth Bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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