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A Market Screening Model for Price Inconstancies: Empirical Evidence from German Electricity Markets

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  • Korbinian von Blanckenburg
  • Marc Hanfeld
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a market screening model to detect inconstancies in price changes. Although there is a long history of industrial organization research of collusion, price setting behavior, and conduct - a robust model to detect structural changes in market structure was missing so far. Our non-parametric approach closes this gap and can be used as a tentative warning system for emerging collusions. Based on the theoretical and empirical results from previous research, we describe requirements of screenings, develop a model, and illustrate our approach with a short market simulation. Finally, we apply the model to the German electricity market. According to our results, between 2001 and 2011 energy suppliers appear to be successful in controlling the market price for several phases.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1274.

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Length: 26 p.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1274

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Keywords: Market screening; collusion; competition policy; energy markets;

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References

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  1. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
  2. Carlson, John A & McAfee, R Preston, 1983. "Discrete Equilibrium Price Dispersion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 480-93, June.
  3. Joseph E. Harrington, 2005. "Optimal Cartel Pricing In The Presence Of An Antitrust Authority," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 145-169, 02.
  4. Felix Müsgens, 2006. "QUANTIFYING MARKET POWER IN THE GERMAN WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY MARKET USING A DYNAMIC MULTI-REGIONAL DISPATCH MODEL -super-* ," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 471-498, December.
  5. Hüschelrath, Kai & Veith, Tobias, 2011. "Cartel detection in procurement markets," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-066, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  6. Pim Heijnen & Marco A. Haan & Adriaan R. Soetevent, 2012. "Screening for Collusion: A Spatial Statistics Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-058/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  7. Stigler, George J & Sherwin, Robert A, 1985. "The Extent of the Market," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(3), pages 555-85, October.
  8. John Connor, 2005. "Collusion and price dispersion," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 335-338.
  9. Korbinian Blanckenburg & Alexander Geist & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2012. "The Influence of Collusion on Price Changes: New Evidence from Major Cartel Cases," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(3), pages 245-256, 08.
  10. Bolotova, Yuliya & Connor, John M. & Miller, Douglas J., 2008. "The impact of collusion on price behavior: Empirical results from two recent cases," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1290-1307, November.
  11. Korbinian Blanckenburg & Alexander Geist, 2011. "Detecting illegal activities: the case of cartels," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 15-33, August.
  12. Abrantes-Metz, Rosa M. & Froeb, Luke M. & Geweke, John & Taylor, Christopher T., 2006. "A variance screen for collusion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 467-486, May.
  13. Dennis W. Carlton, 1986. "The Rigidity of Prices," NBER Working Papers 1813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Korbinian Blanckenburg & Alexander Geist, 2009. "How Can a Cartel Be Detected?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 421-436, November.
  15. Weigt, Hannes & Hirschhausen, Christian von, 2008. "Price formation and market power in the German wholesale electricity market in 2006," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4227-4234, November.
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