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The Dynamics of Global Crude Oil Production

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  • Aleksandar Zaklan
  • Georg Zachmann
  • Anne Neumann

Abstract

We analyze the dynamic effect of prices and price volatility on current oil production, both on the level of country groups and the major individual producer countries. A comprehensive dataset at monthly frequency allows us to include a rich lag structure while controlling for key global and local determinants as well as seasonality. Our set of explanatory variables also includes real economic activity, investment, the strength of the U.S. dollar and institutional quality. We provide a naïve regression analysis using a broad model to show that lagged explanatory variables are important determinants of current oil production. We find that the reaction of oil production is heterogeneous across both country groups and the major individual producer countries.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.363446.de/dp1075.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1075.

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Length: 17 p.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1075

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Keywords: Crude oil; prices and production; dynamic time series;

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