Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data
AbstractWe investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply di erent regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a household as vulnerable or not. Predictive performance is assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), which takes account of false positive as well as true positive rates. Estimates based on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and high mobility in and out of poverty.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in its series SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research with number 481.
Length: 42 p.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
vulnerability; poverty; ROC; German panel data;
Other versions of this item:
- Landau, Katja & Klasen, Stephan & Zucchini, Walter, 2012. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66057, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Katja Landau & Stephan Klasen & Walter Zucchini, 2012. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 118, Courant Research Centre PEG.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
- O29 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-EUR-2012-09-22 (Microeconomic European Issues)
- NEP-FOR-2012-09-22 (Forecasting)
- NEP-LTV-2012-09-22 (Unemployment, Inequality & Poverty)
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