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The Vietnam’s terms of accession and distributional impact of WTO membership

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Author Info

  • Jean-Pierre Cling

    ()
    (DIAL)

  • Mohamed Ali Marouani

    ()
    (Université Paris1-Sorbonne/IEDES, DIAL et ERF)

  • Mireille Razafindrakoto

    ()
    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)

  • Anne-Sophie Robilliard

    ()
    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)

  • François Roubaud

    ()
    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)

Abstract

(english) The strong growth of the Vietnamese economy over the last two decades has brought about sweeping economic and social changes. In particular, there has been a sharp downturn in poverty along with an upturn in social inequalities (albeit not as sharp as in China). This makes the question of the distributional impact of the country’s WTO accession (January 2007) a particularly keen one. The first simulations made using our micro-simulation model point to mainly four types of redistributive effects induced by WTO membership: job gains (especially industrial jobs), growth in real wages, reduction in gender inequalities, and increase in inequalities between rural and urban areas (but slight drop in overall inequalities). Our findings demonstrate the importance of flanking measures to accompany WTO accession and making the most the opportunities that arise, especially in the area of training, domestic migration, regional policies and assistance to wage earners affected by restructuring. _________________________________ (français) La forte croissance de l’économie vietnamienne au cours des deux dernières décennies s’est accompagnée de profondes transformations économiques et sociales. En particulier, on a observé une forte réduction de la pauvreté, accompagnée d’une progression des inégalités sociales (quoique moins accentuée qu’en Chine). Dans ce contexte, la question de l’impact distributif de l’adhésion à l’OMC intervenue en janvier 2007 se pose avec acuité. Les premières simulations effectuées à l’aide de notre modèle de micro-simulation comptable indiquent que l’adhésion à l’OMC aura principalement quatre types d’effets redistributifs : gains d’emplois (en particulier industriels) ; croissance des salaires réels ; réduction des inégalités de genre ; progression des inégalités entre zones rurales/urbaines (mais tassement des inégalités globales). Nos résultats montrent l’importance de prendre des mesures pour accompagner l’entrée à l’OMC et saisir les opportunités offertes, en particulier dans le domaine de la formation, des migrations internes, des politiques régionales et de l’aide aux salariés touchés par les restructurations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2008/03.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200803

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Related research

Keywords: International Trade; WTO; Labour; Inequalities; Vietnam; Commerce international; OMC; Emploi; Inégalités; Vietnam.;

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Cited by:
  1. Houssein Guimbard & Hugo Valin, 2008. "Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Ex-Post Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective," Working Papers 2008-31, CEPII research center.

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