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Poverty dynamics in Peru, 1997-1999


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  • Javier Herrera

    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)


(English) How has poverty changed during the 1997-99 period, when the Peruvian economic performance deteriorated seriously under the negative impact of the international financial crisis? The answer to this question has traditionally relied on cross-section comparisons of poverty indicators. In this paper we extend the analysis first by examining the robustness of these kind of comparisons by considering sampling errors and stochastic dominance and second, by analyzing poverty transitions for households present in the three years of our panel data. Besides transition mobility matrices, we calculated the newer economic mobility index proposed by Fields and Ok and estimated a multinomial logit model of poverty transitions including not only individual and household characteristics but also local geographical variables concerning mainly the provision of public goods. Finally, anti-poverty programs were then evaluated on the basis of static and dynamic poverty approaches. _________________________________ (français) Comment la pauvreté a-t-elle évolué pendant les années 1997-1999, période durant laquelle les performances de l’économie péruvienne se sont sérieusement détériorées sous l’effet négatif de la crise financière internationale ? La réponse à cette question se base traditionnellement sur des comparaisons en coupe instantanée des indicateurs de pauvreté. Dans ce rapport, nous élargissons l’analyse en examinant tout d’abord la fiabilité de ce type de comparaisons à travers la prise en compte des erreurs d’échantillonnage, et ensuite en analysant les transitions de pauvreté des ménages présents durant les trois années de notre panel. En plus des matrices de mobilité de transitions, nous avons calculé un indice de mobilité plus récent proposé par Fields et Ok et estimé un modèle logit multinomial de transition de pauvreté, comprenant non seulement les caractéristiques des individus et des ménages, mais aussi les variables géographiques locales concernant principalement la fourniture des biens publics. Enfin, les programmes de lutte contre la pauvreté ont été évalués sur la base d’approches statiques et dynamiques de la pauvreté.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2001/09.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200109

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Keywords: poverty dynamics; inequality; Peru; multinomial logit;

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Cited by:
  1. Philippe De Vreyer & Javier Herrera & Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, 2005. "Consumption growth and spatial poverty traps: an analysis of the effect of social services and community infrastructures on living standards in rural Peru," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 124, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Herrera, Javier & Roubaud, François, 2005. "Urban Poverty Dynamics in Peru and Madagascar, 1997-99: A Panel Data Analysis," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4977, Paris Dauphine University.
  3. Gambetta Podesta, Renzo, 2007. "Poverty Dynamics in Peru 2001-2003: A Probit Model Analysis," MPRA Paper 3723, University Library of Munich, Germany.


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