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An analytic approach to credit risk of large corporate bond and loan portfolios

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Author Info
Lucas, Andr‚ (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)
Klaassen, Pieter
Spreij, Peter

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Abstract

We consider portfolio credit loss distributions based on a factor model for individual exposures and establish an analytic characterization of the credit loss distribution if the number of exposures tends to infinity. Using this limiting distribution, we explain how skewness and leptokurtosis of credit loss distributions relate to the underlying factor model and the portfolio composition. A key role is played by the R2 of the factor model regression. Based on the limiting distribution and empirical data, it appears that the Basle 8% rule is not an unreasonable approximation for high confidence (99.9%) quantiles of credit losses of a typical portfolio of rated corporate bonds. The practical relevance of our results for credit risk management is investigated by checking the applicability of the limiting distribution to portfolios with a finite number of exposures. It appears that for relatively homogeneous portfolios a minimum of 300 exposures is enough, while for relatively heterogeneous portfolios a number of 800 exposures suffices to obtain an adequate approximation. Thus, our approach can be a

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics in its series Serie Research Memoranda with number 0018.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:vuarem:1999-18

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Web page: http://www.econ.vu.nl

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Related research
Keywords: credit risk factor model fat-tailed distributions skewness asymptotic analysis

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Other

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Laszlo Goerke, 1999. "The Wedge," IZA Discussion Papers 71, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Goerke, Laszlo, 2000. "The Wedge," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(5), pages 608-23, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mark Carey, 1998. "Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1363-1387, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Chunsheng Zhou, 1997. "Default correlation: an analytical result," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Howard J. Wall, 1999. "Help wanted," National Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May. [Downloadable!]
  6. Duffee, Gregory R., 1996. "On measuring credit risks of derivative instruments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 805-833, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Diana Barro & Antonella Basso, 2006. "A credit contagion model for loan portfolios in a network of firms with spatial interaction," Working Papers 143, Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Venice. [Downloadable!]
  2. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2002. "Pro-Cyclicality, Empirical Credit Cycles, and Capital Buffer Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-107/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gunter Löffler, 2004. "Implied asset value distributions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 875-883, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gatfaoui Hayette, 2004. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Systematic Risk and Stochastic Volatility: An Implementation of Merton’s Credit Risk Valuation," Finance 0404004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. cipollini, andrea & missaglia, giuseppe, 2007. "Dynamic Factor analysis of industry sector default rates and implication for Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling," MPRA Paper 3582, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Albanese, Claudio & Vidler, Alicia, 2007. "A STRUCTURAL MODEL FOR CREDIT-EQUITY DERIVATIVES AND BESPOKE CDOs," MPRA Paper 5227, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lucas, Andr‚ & Straetmans, Stefan & Klaassen, Pieter, 1999. "Tail behavior of credit loss distributions," Serie Research Memoranda 0060, Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2003. "Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-062/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Philipp J. Schönbucher, 2000. "Factor Models for Portofolio Credit Risk," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse16_2001, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2003. "Discrete versus Continuous State Switching Models for Portfolio Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-075/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Albanese, Claudio & Vidler, Alicia, 2008. "Dynamic Conditioning and Credit Correlation Baskets," MPRA Paper 8368, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  12. Siem Jan Koopman & Roman Kraeussl & Andre Lucas & Andre Monteiro, 2006. "Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-023/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen & Peter Spreij & Stefan Straetmans, 2001. "Tail Behavior of Credit Loss Distributions for General Latent Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-023/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Rösch, Daniel, 2003. "Credit Risk Factor Modeling and the Basel II IRB Approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2003,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  15. Hayette Gatfaoui, 2004. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Systematic Risk and Stochastic Volatility: An Implementation of Merton's Credit Risk Valuation," Research Paper Series 123, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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