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Unemployment dynamics and age

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  • Berg, Gerard J. van den

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

  • Lomwel, A. Gijsbert C. van
  • Ours, Jan C. van

Abstract

Youth unemployment is an issue of primary concern in Western European countries. In this paper we analyze dynamics in unemployment for youths, adults (prime-aged individuals), and elderly. We use quarterly French unemployment data, stratified by gender, age group, and duration, over the period 1982-1994. We find that the inflow rate of male youths is more sensitive to the business cycle than the inflow rate of adults, but that the outflow of adults is more sensitive than the outflow of youths. Seasonal effects affect youth unemployment mainly by fluctuations in the inflow. The results are used for a policy recommendation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics in its series Serie Research Memoranda with number 0048.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:vuarem:1998-48

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Web page: http://www.feweb.vu.nl

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Keywords: unemployment duration; business cycle; duration dependence; seasonality.;

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References

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  1. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January.
  2. Gerard J, Van den Berg & Bas Van der Klmaauw, 1998. "Combining Micro and Macro Unemployment Duration Data," Working Papers 98-58, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  3. Dynarski, Mark & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1990. "The Behavior of Unemployment Durations over the Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 350-56, May.
  4. Abowd, John M & Kramarz, Francis & Margolis, David N, 1999. "Minimum Wages and Employment in France and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 2159, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. repec:fth:inseep:9858 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
  7. Berg, G. van den & Ours, J.C. van, 1996. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-86874, Tilburg University.
  8. Bonnal, Liliane & Fougere, Denis & Serandon, Anne, 1997. "Evaluating the Impact of French Employment Policies on Individual Labour Market Histories," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 683-713, October.
  9. Lynch, Lisa M., 1985. "State dependency in youth unemployment : A lost generation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 71-84, April.
  10. Daniel Cohen & Arnaud Lefranc & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1997. "French unemployment: a transatlantic perspective," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 12(25), pages 265-292, October.
  11. Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-21, March.
  12. Abbring, J.H. & Berg, G. van den & Ours, J.C. van, 1999. "The Anatomy of Unemployment Dynamics," Discussion Paper 1999-81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  13. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Dynamics of Youth Unemployment," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 199-234 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Butler, Richard J & McDonald, James B, 1986. "Trends in Unemployment Duration Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 545-57, November.
  15. John M. Abowd & Francis Kramarz & Thomas Lemieux & David N. Margolis, 1997. "Minimum Wages and Youth Employment in France and the United States," NBER Working Papers 6111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Lynch, Lisa M, 1989. "The Youth Labor Market in the Eighties: Determinants of Re-employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 37-45, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23.

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