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Strategic and tactical asset allocation and the effect of long-run equilibrium relations

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  • Lucas, Andr‚

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

Abstract

This article focuses on the relevance of long-term equilibrium relations for financial decision making. Special attention is devoted to optimal asset allocation in the presence of possibly cointegrated time-series, e.g., asset prices. Using a stylized asset allocation problem, the link is established between the number of cointegrating relations and their precise form on the one hand, and the optimal asset allocation on the other hand. The paper disentangles the different effects of long-term relations on optimal asset allocation with different planning horizons: error-correction mainly affects tactical asset allocation, while cointegration affects strategic asset allocation. The paper also presents results on the effects of incorporating an incorrect number of error-correction mechanisms in financial decision models. Mis-specifying the number of cointegrating relations in a scenario generator can induce either inefficient or overly risky financial management decisions. The findings are illustrated using a stylized empirical example from currency management.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics in its series Serie Research Memoranda with number 0042.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:vuarem:1997-42

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Web page: http://www.feweb.vu.nl

Related research

Keywords: Cointegration; Error-Correction; Tactical Asset Allocation; Strategic As-set Allocation; Mean Reversion; Non-Stationarity; Mis-specified Equilib-rium Relationships; Currency Management;

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References

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  1. Karim Abadir & Kaddour Hadri & Elias Tzavalis, . "The Influence of VAR Dimensions on Estimator Biases," Discussion Papers 96/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  4. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Cointegration and long-horizon forecasting," Working Papers 97-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  7. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
  8. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  9. Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1021-43, September.
  10. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Xiao, Zhijie, 2009. "Quantile cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 248-260, June.
  2. Roland Füss & Felix Schindler, 2011. "Diversifikationsvorteile verbriefter Immobilienanlagen in einem Mixed‐Asset‐Portfolio," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 170-191, 05.
  3. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2010. "Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets," Working Papers in Business, Management and Finance 201005, Department of Management and Business, Padjadjaran University, revised May 2010.
  4. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200911, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.
  5. Aldrin Herwany & Erie Febrian, 2010. "Co-integration and Causality Analysis on Developed Asian Markets For Risk Management & Portfolio Selection," Working Papers in Business, Management and Finance 201001, Department of Management and Business, Padjadjaran University, revised Jan 2010.
  6. Aldrin Herwany & Erie Febrian, 2009. "Co-integration and Causality Analysis on Developed Asian Markets For Risk Management & Portfolio Selection," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200909, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.
  7. Febrian, Erie & Herwany, Aldrin, 2007. "Co-integration and Causality Among Jakarta Stock Exchange, Singapore Stock Exchange, and Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 9632, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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