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Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence

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Author Info

  • Berg, G.J.

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

  • Ours, J.C.

Abstract

A major issue in the analysis of unemployment durations concerns distinguishing genuine duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment from unobserved heterogeneity. The authors present a method for the nonparametric estimation of both phenomena, designed to be applicable to time-series data on aggregate outflows from different duration classes. The model explicitly takes into account that individual exit rates are affected by the business cycle and by seasonal effects. The method is applied to U.S. data. The authors find diverging duration effects among black and white individuals. However, except for white males, duration dependence is dominated by unobserved heterogeneity. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: ftp://zappa.ubvu.vu.nl/19930022.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics in its series Serie Research Memoranda with number 0022.

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Date of creation: 1993
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:vuarem:1993-22

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Web page: http://www.feweb.vu.nl

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  1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  2. van den Berg, Gerard J, 1990. "Nonstationarity in Job Search Theory," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 255-77, April.
  3. Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January.
  4. repec:fth:inseep:9216 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Bruce D. Meyer, 1991. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Elbers, Chris & Ridder, Geert, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 403-09, July.
  7. Ours, J.C. van, 1992. "Duration Dependency and Unobserved Heterogeneity in Unemployment Time Series," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-142180, Tilburg University.
  8. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-83, June.
  9. Butler, Richard J & McDonald, James B, 1986. "Trends in Unemployment Duration Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 545-57, November.
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