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A short run econometric analysis of the international coffee market

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Author Info

  • Palm, F.C.

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

  • Vogelvang, E.

Abstract

The authors develop a short-run econometric model for the world coffee market and give empirical evidence on the behavioral equations of the model for the major coffee importing and exporting countries. The behavioral relationships for producers, inventory holders, speculators, and consumers are derived from optimizing considerations in an uncertain environment. Spot and futures prices adjust to clear the spot and futures markets at each period. International trade flows of coffee are determined by the optimizing behavior of the agents (countries) in the model. The empirical evidence confirms the authors' hypothesis of a highly structured model which is consistent with profit maximizing behavior under uncertainty. Copyright 1986 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics in its series Serie Research Memoranda with number 0013.

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Date of creation: 1986
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:vuarem:1986-13

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Web page: http://www.feweb.vu.nl

Related research

Keywords: Econometrische analyse; Internationale economie; Koffiehandel;

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References

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  1. Gelb, Alan H, 1977. "Optimal Control and Stabilization Policy: An Application to the Coffee Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 95-109, February.
  2. Newbery, David M, 1989. "The Theory of Food Price Stabilisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(398), pages 1065-82, December.
  3. Bray, Margaret M, 1981. "Futures Trading, Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 575-96, May.
  4. Kawai, Masahiro, 1983. "Price Volatility of Storable Commodities under Rational Expectations in Spot and Futures Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(2), pages 435-59, June.
  5. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233.
  6. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-87, September.
  7. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Vogelvang, E., 1990. "Hypotheses testing concerning relationship between spot prices of various types of coffee," Serie Research Memoranda 0012, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.

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