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Machine News and Volatility: The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the TRNA Sentiment Series

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Author Info

  • David E. Allen

    (Centre for Applied Financial Studies, UniSA University of South Africa, and, visiting, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney)

  • Michael McAleer

    (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan, Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and Complutense University of Madrid, Spain)

  • Abhay K. Singh

    (School of Business, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia)

Abstract

This paper features an analysis of the relationship between the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index and a sentiment news series using daily data obtained from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics (TRNA) provided by SIRCA (The Securities Industry Research Centre of the Asia Pacic). The expansion of on-line financial news sources, such as internet news and social media sources, provides instantaneous access to financial news. Commercial agencies have started developing their own filtered financial news feeds, which are used by investors and traders to support their algorithmic trading strategies. In this paper we use a sentiment series, developed by TRNA, to construct a series of daily sentiment scores for Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock index component companies. A variety of forms of this measure, namely basic scores, absolute values of the series, squared values of the series, and the first differences of the series, are used to estimate three standard volatility models, namely GARCH, EGARCH and GJR. We use these alternative daily DJIA market sentiment scores to examine the relationship between financial news sentiment scores and the volatility of the DJIA return series. We demonstrate how this calibration of machine filtered news can improve volatility measures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 14-014/III.

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Date of creation: 23 Jan 2014
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20140014

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

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Keywords: DJIA; Sentiment Scores; TRNA; Conditional Volatility Models;

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  1. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
  2. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
  3. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  4. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  5. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  6. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, 06.
  7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 10449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Andreas Storkenmaier & Martin Wagener & Christof Weinhardt, 2012. "Public information in fragmented markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 179-215, June.
  9. Groß-Klußmann, Axel & Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2011. "When machines read the news: Using automated text analytics to quantify high frequency news-implied market reactions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 321-340, March.
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