The Prediction Value
AbstractWe introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations of v(S) when i cooperates or not. We characterize the prediction value as a special member of the class of (extended) values which satisfy anonymity, linearity and a consistency property. Every n-player binomial semivalue coincides with the PV for a particular family of probability distributions over coalitions. The PV can thus be regarded as a power index in specific cases. Conversely, some semivalues – including the Banzhaf but not the Shapley value – can be interpreted in terms of informational importance.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 13-188/II.
Date of creation: 25 Nov 2013
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influence; voting games; cooperative games; Banzhaf value; Shapley value;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C71 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Cooperative Games
- D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
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- René van den Brink & Agnieszka Rusinowska & Frank Steffen, 2011.
"Measuring Power and Satisfaction in Societies with Opinion Leaders: An Axiomatization,"
Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne
11018, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- René Brink & Agnieszka Rusinowska & Frank Steffen, 2013. "Measuring power and satisfaction in societies with opinion leaders: an axiomatization," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 671-683, September.
- Rene van den Brink & Agnieszka Rusinowska & Frank Steffen, 2011. "Measuring Power and Satisfaction in Societies with Opinion Leaders: An Axiomatization," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-058/1, Tinbergen Institute.
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